Got outdoor plans for this weekend? BBQ perhaps? Go on… why not, cause it’s going to look and feel like summer, not autumn!

It was last weekend I started alluded to the fact that beyond the first half off this week, the second half is going to be picture of building sun, sand, sea and warmth once the Icelandic low pushes off towards Scandinavia. That idea still stands strong and we are going to begin to see some ridge building starting tomorrow and this will become a trend through this weekend, yes.. it’s only Tuesday but models are in solid agreement and have been bullish on this really since the end of last week!

While we should see little if any shower activity across the bulk of England and Wales through at least the next 5 days, perhaps extending into next week, the only issue I have is with Scotland and possibly the far north of England where heights here are low enough and with a passing low Thursday not that far to the north, we may see an increase in clouds which could present showers, perhaps lingering mist over higher, shektered areas. This would stop those temperatures from rising obviously. Wednesday though is looking great across the board and winds should begin dying down tonight.

As for more southern areas, the party begins now with higher pressure going to become a permanent feature quite possibly into early next week would you believe. I’ve noticed the recent BBC numbers have went from a cool, conservative 21C for the Southeast towards the end of this week back at the weekend, it’s now up to 26C today for Friday and Saturday. This is leaning more towards numbers I’ve had up since the weekend. It’s always a good sign when you see the BBC starting to react and catch up. Often they start off too conservative, whether it be with warmth or cold.

Here’s a look at the latest GFS surface and ECMWF upper charts Wednesday through Saturday!

Notice a nice big surface high quickly builds across all of the UK for tomorrow, this should support sunshine and warmth but Scotland, will see this warmth tempered by lower heights aloft. Check out the below ECMWF upper heights for tomorrow.

The fly in the ointment comes Thursday to Scotland, notice the surface heights fall away as a low passes to the north. This is what I’m getting at. These passing lows trim heights anough that their trailing frontal systems can cross the country bringing increased cloud, west breezes or even some strong winds as well as showers. Heights south of the border are stronger and so these fronts never get very far south and so sunshine and the warming trend won’t be interupted for much of England, Wales and central and southern Ireland too.

Notice in the below ECMWF upper chart how the upper level ridge builds, so this should support warmer temperatures as the depth of sinking increases and mostly sunny could turn to absolute sunny :).

Look for highs in the range of 24-27C between Manchester and London Friday into Saturday.

Ok, now here’s the thing. Check out the GFS surface chart for Saturday, notice heights rise at the surface across ALL areas and not just central and southern Britain and Ireland. This is why I am going for a mostly sunny and increasingly warm day across all areas with low 20s up over Scotland. The bottom ECMWF upper chart for Saturday also coincides with this idea as the upper ridge sits directly over the UK by Saturday. 27, even a 28C is possible in the Southeast Saturday! Get those BBQ’s out!

 

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