Just when you thought it couldn’t get any hotter than what we saw in Spain back at the weekend when Seville set a new all-time August record high of 114° (45.6°C) and in France where it’s been a fairly decent and not too hot summer compared the recent summers, the ECMWF, GFS and other models suddenly drop the red paint bomb!
Nither model has tamed in the last 48 hours from their bullish, devilishly hot look for this weekend. Amazingly both ECMWF and the normally cooler GFS, both have the mighty 592 height line reaching northeast France (see charts below). Just look at those 850 temps in last night’s run of the ECMWF (above). Notice in the 500mb charts below (ECMWF top, GFS below) just how strong they take the ridge all the way up into northeast France by Sunday afternoon. Those thickness values which go through the roof are about as strong as you’ll ever get in this part of the world and would most certainly suggest high potential for new all-time August or all-time for any month, records.. all the way to the English Channel port of Calais.
Paris would most likely top 100°, perhaps even near 105° with the interior of France topping 110°.
Further south, with even warmer 850 temps, we could see parts of the eastern interior of Spain and southern and eastern France surpass 115°, with even a few typical hot spots poushing even warmer values.
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