I don’t imagine you’ll be overly surprised if I was to tell you that over the next 10 days there will be no heat wave! In fact, I hope you’ve enjoyed this warmer weather mixed with all the rain because we will see chilly air mix down from Iceland by mid next week and so we once again find ourselves left out in any decent weather. Yes we dry off but a cool air mass contains less moisture than a warm one and really that is the only saving grace. Basically what shits down our sdeluge is a chilly air mass from the north, not a strong upper ridge which brings a spell of hot and sunny weather..

The low currently influencing us will scoot off to the east and that only means one thing, that northwest flow, albeit weak to start and so while we turn a little more settled, temperatures at least shouldn’t take a sharp nosedive, it looks to be gradual, so at least the pattern will let us down gently..

The ECMWF shows the northwest flow drawing substantially cool air down by Wednesday along with another low. Highs on Wednesday afternoon may struggle to 15C anywhere in Scotland, possibly even the North of England while it may have a hard time topping a mere 17 or 18C in the South, That I know is very poor for this time of year.

I’m sorry if this post depresses you but I guess I’m just the messenger. I myself am hungry for at least some warmth and sun but I just don’t see it through at least midmonth..

What’s worse is the fact that the Med will really heat up. An intensifying upper ridge over the Sahara will extend brutal heat up into Iberia through next week while our flow turns from northwest to westerly and so we may see an increase in unsettled, front dominated weather by the later of next week into the weekend. This will be Spain and Portugal’s hottest air of the year with highs in Seville perhaps pushing 44 or 45C.