Some initial thoughts before discussing the week ahead…

Ok, I admit I too am getting a little fed up with this stubborn, boring, un-summer-like pattern. Basically since 2006 we have had poor summers, especially up here in Scotland. At least for you folks down in the South of England, you manage to live close enough to the continent where warmth and stronger heights favour at least some bursts of heat that we here in Scotland often miss out on.

So what’s going with these dissapointing summers? The weather even seems wilder than what we’ve seen in years gone by right?, Well I guess it’s all down to a dull, wet and cool cycle we’re in. I’m a great believer in the saying, it’s happened before and it will happen again. Nothing new under the sun. Our climate works in cycles and instead of going straight for the global warming theory for blaming the recent wild weather, think of it this way.. In order to get what we got last Thursday, COLD as well as warmth must interact in order to create the clash needed to produce those wild storms.

Our climate here in the UK is not reliable for warmth and high pressure domination. Our mid-latititude, ocean influenced climate more often than not doesn’t see extrem, heat or warmth and when we get anything remotely out of the ordinary, suddenly everyones up in arms. We live at the battleground latitude where low pressure and high pressure meet, sometimes the sub-tropical high pressure belt will migrate north allowing us to enjoy sunshine and warmth and, of late certainly, it’s been more low pressure, cool and wet weather we’ve become so use to.

Keep in mind that we don’t live in Spain. When it does get warm, it never lasts like what it does further south. Our latitude and the fact we have an ocean directly to our west in which our weather comes from is what’s against us.

Next 10 Days Doesn’t Look Great!

So, after all that, what have we in store for the week ahead? Take a guess….

I’m sorry i’ve no heat wave for you in the next 7-10, in fact it’s basically a repeat of the last 30 days. No warmth and settle pattern like what we seen back at the later part of May. The NAO doesn’t want to go neautral never mind positive and so we remain dominated by the trough.

The ECMWF and other models are in good agreement that certainly over the next 7 days, heights are low and embedded lows and associated fronts will keep pushing into Ireland and the UK off the Atlantic.

Temps will remain subpar for early July with temps averaging 12-17C in the North, 17-21C in the South between now and next Saturday. While we have a generally showery pattern with areas seeing more wisepread organised rain, we do have a low pushing a near UK-wide area of organised rains Tuesday into Wednesday which may bare watching in terms of flooding, that low will eventually push southeast and may open the door around the 8-9th of July for some warmer air to flow over top and into the UK from off Europe.

All in all the next 10 days doesn’t look particularly exciting.

Tomorrow I shall look and show you what some long range models are showing for the rest of summer and yes, even the winter ahead!