As you can see from the below charts off the ECMWF model, we see the low which brought last night’s heavy rain across the UK sliding east, eventually carving out a trough over the East and Southeast of Europe. This is quite the change coming to the hot zone of the last 4-6 weeks. While this occurs it does two things, 1) forces the core of the Med basin heat to shift west forcing a new ridge to develop over Spain and Portugal and 2) it will open the door further north for height rises.

The model for several days now has kept the idea of upper level ridging building into the UK. That means Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday we have a warming trend which could allow highs to 25, possibly even 26C into Southern England, low 20s C for Scotland by either Wednesday or Thursday.

The problem though comes when we have the trough over the North Atlantic deepening, it forms a significant low well west of Ireland. While this trough deepens as the storm within it develops, this will help raise heights over the UK, drawing more heat and increasingly humid air north from Iberia. The issue comes midweek (Wednesday or Thursday) when a piece of low and mid-level energy breaks off the parent low and works east along the trough/ridge boundary up into the UK. The GFS, JMA, ECMWF, Met and most other agree with this but when you have very warm, moist air connecting with low pressure, this could result in some troublesome weather, especially when have have seen big problems with flooding of late.

This scenario could well support significant flood risk with major rains and powerful strong to severe thunderstorms.

So, to sum up, yes it’s going to get much warmer but the feature set to slide into the UK could be the trigger for explosive storms by late Wednesday and or Thursday.

This weekend sees the entire system work across the UK through the weekend bringing the more typical conditions we have become so use to seeing. Widespread rain, wind and much cooler air works in. A trough becomes established over the West of Europe drawing much cooler air from the north all the way into Spain and Portugal this will result in a stormy breakdown of this week’s hot spell. The ridge will then slide east bringing hot weather to the Balearics and eventually Italy.

I have now uploaded a new program for doing videos but unfortunately I have yet to figure some things out. The quality in the video below is poor but bare with me on this. Should have this sorted for you in the next couple of days..