A storm system working east along the International border has a cold front draped south over the Plains and as usual this is triggering thunderstorms which if they haven’t already, will turn severe as they run into increasingly hot and humid air out ahead.

These surface temperatures in the map below greatly raise the lapse rate (measure of temperature difference with height) throughout the Plains as well as increase the fuel for thunderstorms to feed off of as the form and push east. Surface winds out of the south, southwest and southeast and northwest to west winds in the mid and upper levels, particularly over the Dakotas into Minnesota will help rotate this towering cumulonimbus towers.

The primary threat into tonight will be large hail, damaging wind gusts and flooding downpours. Though the risk of tornadoes is low, there is always a potential there with some of the stronger cells.