>My appologies for not getting a post on here sooner. My thinking has been that since nothing has been happening, why post, right?

The purpose of creating this seperate blog from my main blog was that in the event of a major season, which by the way I still believe is very much on the cards, happens, well I will be prepared to provide you the very best of my knowledge as well as link you to the very best knowledge from the very best experts out there, keeping you up-to-date with all the latest happenings in the tropics in an organised way. By creating this individual blog but still part of “Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan” I shall provide you with the information both by myself personally and others in an organised, well presented and easy to read and follow way!

Anyway, my title for today is, as you can see.. Do we have a tropical storm (or hurricane) ready to develop?

So far it’s been fairly quite.. That folks is a good thing and I’ll tell you a few reasons why I think so… 1) It’s simplky good to not have storms, full stop! 2) We don’t want to see 2-4-6 named storms during the “early season”, why? well that would really worry me about what may lie ahead later down the road. We typically don’t see much activity during June and July, several factors are the reason.. some of which include, upper tamospheric dunamics are unfavorable and the atmosphere needs to adjust and all the “bad weather” takes time to retreat to it’s typically, most northerly latitude, meaning the jet, it’s low pressure systems etc etc still manage to creep far enough south and often creates an unfavorable environment, also waters in the central and eastern Atlantic are still too cool until late July.. So, typically we start to see activity ramp up.. (when the overall pattern is right) either in late July or more typically early August and a real ramping up of activity tends to hit by August 15 onwards when waters are about as warm as their going to get throughout the entire basin as well as the upper atmosphere is often more conducive.

HAVE WE BONNIE ON OUR HANDS?

Right now I am a little skeptical on whether we will see development over the next day or so… there are a few things making me hold back and looking back at history, we often “think”, oh this thing’s going to becomne a problem, even before it does anything, only to find it actually doesn’t form at all…

The system needs to straighten itself out. The low level and mid-level circulations need to get over top of each other and then we’ll see this bundle of thunderstorms begin looking more storm-like, until that happens I am holding back on any prediction as to whether it’s heading for Key West or Melbourne and whether it’s going to be a storm or a cat 2 hurricane….

I shall be back TOMORROW, right here on Hurricane 2010 and shall bring you the latest thoughts personally!

Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark