>Warming has begun, but lots more winter ahead
despite the commencement to a large-scale thaw, Altnaharra records Britain’s coldest high of the season with yesterday’s -13C and Kinbrace cools to -18C for the low..

Our snow/ice cover is becoming ever more depleted after now two days above freezing and last night remaining above freezing for th first night since Dec 18. Lots of dripping and thawing out now. However it didn’t warm quite as much today as yesterday despite it feeling colder yesterday. Todays high only warmed to 35 degrees but with an overnight remaining in the mid-30s, we are seeing a lot of water starting to form as the bare ground is starting to return to show and the snow shrinks. However, unless snow showers that are predicted do enough to recoat the ground considerably, we will have no snow within the next day or so meaning our snow covered ground will have lasted from Dec 19 through January 12-13 or so.. I shall be scoring my forecast so far in the next day or so and releasing my results here sometime before the end of the week. It will be scording Nov, Dec and Jan seperately and then together. Scoring my accuracy of the milder, wetter November as well as the cold and snow, when the snow and the cold arrived and how long it would last.

I shall also be taking into consideration on my new scale of severity how this cold wave holds up to my “perfect cold wave” which will be used in the years ahead to compare future winter events with the past.

The Arctic air is drawing away and this is allowing milder Atlantic air to return, however a frozen surface which is feeding back to colder air above the surface and the difficulty Atlantic air can have warming the British air space, we may see the thaw struggle to warm us up to any considerably level. We may see more snow. At this moment in time, it’s 33 outside, breezy conditions and with rain falling, it somewhat raw and unpleasant to be out there tonight.

Rest of January

To be honest with you, I find it hard to believe the rest of the month won’t remain chillier than normal, though just not quite as below normal as it has been. My advice at this time to folks would be, enjoy milder days as the close of January and the first 7-10 days of February may bring another round of harsh winter weather to much if not all of Britain. The Arctic can’t bring cold like we’ve seen both in coverage but intensity for long periods of time, it tends to eventually warm up having been far away from it’s source region for perhaps 2-4 weeks, therefore it shrinks, pulls back to it’s source region but when you have a “locked pattern” or persistent one, I tend to sway my ideas towards the cold and snow returning, mirroring both the first and second half of winter.

We have well over 50% of the winter season left, I don’t believe for one minute that’s winter over, not by a long shot. I also can’t say for deffinate yet, whether even the “worst of winter” is behind us, despite having just coped with the worst period of winter in 30 years for Britain and 50 years for Scotland. If we get another severe cold period which I believe may be looking from Jan 25 onwards for perhaps 2 or more weeks, possibly rivaling the length of the cold spell we may be taking a run at one of the worst winters in 100 years in the UK.

Lots more winter to come despite the fact we’re warming ever so slowly. This should provide us with a 10 days period of regrouping before the next slam of winter hits as it will reload it’s supply of bitter cold air.

February could be a nasty winter month ahead for us…. You’ll only hope March is warmer and that we have a BBQ summer to look forward to.

FLORIDA COLD.

42 degrees in tropical Key West just two degrees shy of coldest in record history there, whilst folks had ice on their cars in Miami, remarkable! Miami hits a record 36 degrees whilst Orlando bottoms out at 29. Tampa a cold 25-degree record low. Miami sub-50 degree high marks only 4 other times this has occured.

SWEDEN AND CHINA COLD

With brutal cold effecting many areas of the hemisphere, i’ve noticed reports of -40F/C in both northern China and Sweden. Finland and Norway’s northern interior have also both likely saw nights below this level as well as Mongolia and nations within the interior of continents.

The Swedish town of Dalarna was expected to hit -44C, whether it did this or not I am not sure…

INTERESTING ARTICLE ON HOW DECEMBER 2009 WAS SECOND SNOWIEST ON RECORD FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/10/second-snowiest-december-on-record-in-the-northern-hemisphere/

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Email me at [email protected]