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Here is NOAA’s always warm forecast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead03/off03_temp.gif
With all the snow falling across a large area of the West and Northern tier of the USA, Scotland’s Highlands and the European Alpine region, folks at the IPCC, NOAA, UK Met, Al Gore and others who depend on their warm models must surely be squirming just a little at the thought of some of these winter forecasts that are increasingly appearing from the closet actually holding water.
AccuWeather’s Ken Clark (Western Expert), Henry Margusity (Eastern Expert) and Brett Anderson (Canadian Expert now have their forecast thoughts released to the public.
Henry Margusity
Ken Clark
Here is the Old Farmers Almanac Forecast
NOAA
I shall be releasing my new updated version of my winter forecast for 2009-10 by October 31 for the United States and United Kingdom and Europe. My Canada Forecast updated version should be online within the next week or so when time prevails.
Here’s my earlier forecast that was released back in early July and also the comparison to Joe Bastardi’s. http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/2009/08/comparing-mark-vogan-to-joe-bastardis.html
Thanks for reading. I would enjoy receiving your thoughts and ideas on this winter and even comments on the other forecasts. Please email me at [email protected].
– Mark Vogan
>Oh thanks for the link. Much appreciated. When does New York get the first snowfalls typically?
>JamieD5 go here. http://www.noaa.gov/
Somewhere in there is a site map of the US. Then once that map is showing click anywhere on the map or just type in New York State and follow the links. There's tons of things in there.All USA areas have zip codes.The two close to me are 13152 and 13110.
>We should adopt an SI unit for our temperature discussions: the kelvin (K).
I see that the mean minimum daily temperature for NY is 48 F [1]. So 29 F is almost 20 F below the mean. But the record minimum is 27 F [1]. So these cool temperatures have been experienced before. I would be interested if a new record is set. Perhaps it is feasible?
What is the uncertainty in your temperature measurement? Has your thermometer been calibrated recently? Or have you sourced this information from elsewhere? Perhaps a reference would be useful?
[1] http://www.bbc.co.uk (accessed 14th Oct 2009)
>D5 if you paid attention to the post and location NY you would know that HERE in the USA we don't use celsius normally as a temp reading.And 29 degrees "C" would be a little warm for this time of year in New York.
>29 degrees what? dogs? cats? It is good practice to give units of measurement. 29 degrees C is relatively warm for New York at this time of year? As for the Rockies, it is unlikely that seasonal forecasts will predict short-term cold snaps with a high degree of certainty. Also I would expect these mountains to be covered in snow at this time of the year. Surely it's not beyond seasonal variation to have snow several weeks early? Snowfall usually occurs here in Scotland, at higher levels in October. It doesn't mean that we have a great freeze on the way.
>Jamie, What have you got to sday about the Rockies and Northern Plains Arctic Outreak happening now? Did NOAA's "warm models" predict this and by the way, they have a very poor success record and ALWAYS predict warm!!
>It was 30 degrees here in the Central New York area this morning.At one point it was 29 but I wasn't awake at that time.
Lat:43.12
Lon:76.12
Elev:404
>I'm glad to see that someone is talking sense. The predicted temperature map shows that it is to be warmer this winter than average for America so I think you should put the cooling chat on the backburner for now.