United States of America

The new run of the CFSv2 for winter has interesting changes. While the red paint bomb was dropped on the winter across much of the continent, it’s now looking like the model is trending towards a more weak to moderate El Nino style winter. It’s safe to say that the El Nino is coming on but not strong […]

As stated in recent days, when you’ve got a large banana shaped high spanning much of the Northern US and Canada, you’ve got to watch underneath where heights are naturally lower. The threat this week is not so much from a true tropical entity but a rouge system which runs north, hugging the Eastern Seaboard. Here’s the […]

For the best part of a year, high pressure has dominated much of the eastern Pacific and Western North America thanks to warmer than normal SST’s and it’s been one of, if not thee driest year’s on record for California. The abnormally dry conditions stretch all the way into Oregon and Washington as well as British Columbia. We […]

ECMWF day 3-10 With strongest positive up in Canada, heights are naturally lower further south, possibly below normal in the waters off the S & E coast. That’s when you have to watch the tropics for any mischief. Here’s the latest GFS ens MJO forecast.   Phase 8 into 1 favours the warm Eastern pattern […]

Many a great winter is preceded by a warm, wet fall season and despite a low of 21 at Saranac Lake, NY on September 19th, the pattern looks warm deep into October and probably beyond. Sometimes a quick starting winter is a quick ending winter. The warm water off the East Coast and drought in West […]

Thanks to a big, cool and dry Canadian high, clear skies and light winds will bring another cold September night to the valleys of New England and Upstate New York. This very low dew point air will certainly help with the overnight cooling process. Note the 20s, even 10s in northern NY. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] NWS have […]