United States of America

The troughs are still on the table with the first coming down this weekend into early next week while the secondary swings into the Pacific Northwest mid to late next week. ECMWF has weakened it’s intensity but has more snowfall in the mountains than the GFS which has the deeper trough. Yes, as usual, there’s confliction! Meanwhile […]

Super Typhoon Vongfong deepened to 880mb last night and this could become a top 5 strongest tropical cyclone on record. We of course had the recurve of a strong typhoon within the last 5 days and this should drive trough No 1 down the Plains EARLY next week. Models have been all over this now for […]

We’re talking about one ‘extremely’ intense Super Typhoon Vongfong that’s spinning over the West Pacific. Winds now sustained at around 180 mph with gusts topping 220. This system is set to make a recurve as it makes a close approach to Japan in the coming days. This will likely have significant influence some 3,500 miles to the […]

The current trough which brought sub-freezing lows into Alabama and Georgia through the weekend will be lifting out over the next 36 hours, replaced by warmer but more unsettled weather once again. The most noteworthy weather through the first half of this week will be the remnants of Simon which will come ashore on the Baja […]

Short post tonight given that I was taking today off. However, it’s been an impressive weekend of weather across the US. From record heat in California with the warmest day at Morro Bay (100) since 1989 to Chicago getting their 2nd earliest snow on record. In terms of those snow reports around Chicago, Saturday morning’s reports marked […]

We have a highly amplified pattern now setting up over the US with strong West Coast ridge bringing record heat once again to California while cool is the rule further east. Given the RECURVE of west Pacific typhoons, it look’s as though we’re going to see more mega troughs drop into the heart of the country […]

I touched on the tanking of the AO and NAO in this morning’s Europe post and video but here’s a great graphic produced by Ralph Fato on just how rare this ‘tanking’ is if it comes off. What may this mean for the US in October? More extreme weather such as the extreme amplification of the pattern […]

As stated many a time now, I think fall is warmer than normal for much of the country but we may find a pool of cool in the Rockies, possibly extending eastward through the Plains where the troughs like to dig more. However, the warm water off the East Coast and stronger than normal Bermuda high means resistance for […]

With both NAO and AO positive, the zonal, Pacific flow pattern rules next 2, possibly 3 weeks across the US. This day 3-10 500mb height anomaly chart says it all. Expect above normal temps with west to east flow. CFSv2 has the same idea for October in it’s 200mb height anomaly. Note the negative over Greenland representing to positive […]