We have a highly amplified pattern now setting up over the US with strong West Coast ridge bringing record heat once again to California while cool is the rule further east. Given the RECURVE of west Pacific typhoons, it look’s as though we’re going to see more mega troughs drop into the heart of the country later on into October bringing cold and snow.

Here’s the 5-day 500mb height anomalies and temp anomalies off ECMWF.

That trough means business, so much so that it want’s to snow as far south as Chicago, bring 1-2 inches to Minneapolis while it dumps 2 feet on northern Ontario.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Typhoon 1

Typhoon 2 (likely to recurve too)

CFSv2 sees the trough in the east in response to the first recurve but it doesn’t see that second recurve as it’s warm probably too far west. Sure it’s likely to be warm on the EC but not in the OH-TN Valleys.

The GFS appears to have the right idea with a mean trough settling into the East next week with system 1 and then taking the trough axis west into the OH Valley day 9-16 with the recurve of typhoon 2.

With the -NAO and strongly negative AO, this is the kinda setup which favours significant cold and snow towards the second half of October, particularly in the Rockies and Plains while it’s warm on both coasts.

Apologies for no US videos in recent days. Have been tied up late on in the evening lately. Will have one up tomorrow.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]