Many a great winter is preceded by a warm, wet fall season and despite a low of 21 at Saranac Lake, NY on September 19th, the pattern looks warm deep into October and probably beyond. Sometimes a quick starting winter is a quick ending winter. The warm water off the East Coast and drought in West should make for above normal temps on both coasts this fall with a cool pool in between.

There’s lot’s the table over the next 2-3 months as to what kind of winter we’ll see. I strongly believe a warm, wet theme continues through November, possibly into early and mid December before a turn to colder. This happened back in the El Nino season of 2009.

Check out the latest GFS ensemble 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies for the upcoming 16 days.

ECMWF day 3-10 has same thing.

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CFSv2 shows turnaround.

Jamstec forecast for Sep through Nov

Emphasis is on warm!

Jamstec still looks like this for winter!

The warm water in the northeast Pacific along with the modoki El Nino (similar to 2009) should bring back to back tough winter for US!

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