United Kingdom & Ireland
While there was no cooling towards the end of December, the overall December Outlook played out quite well with warm and wet the rule. If there was an underestimate to the month, it came with the degree of warmth seen, likely down to the peaking of the Super El Nino which I believe is overwhelming the pattern not just over […]
As forecast back at the beginning of the week, the open to Christmas Eve will be rather lively with Storm Eva named by the MO. The worst of the wind and rain will be felt early in the morning but her presence will be felt through this evening as well as well as through Christmas Eve day. Winds will widely touch gale […]
No Cold Pattern In Sight For Europe Next 2-3 Weeks, Strat Warming Favours US Cold Like Past 2 Years!
For many of us hoping for a pattern change to colder, well we’ll need to remain patient as the AO remains strongly positive but is expected to drop towards weak negative in the next week or so. However, the NAO doesn’t show any real sign of getting much below neutral over the next few weeks and that means the Atlantic continues to rule. A […]
38 out of the last 54 Christmas Days have seen falling somewhere in the UK. Widespread white Christmases (including snow cover) are much rarer. The last one was the record-breaker of 2010 which not only saw 83% of station reporting snow on the ground but 19% of stations also recorded snow falling. 2015 looks brown for at least 80% of […]
Every Saturday in the run up to New Year, I thought it would be good to take a step back in time and relive some of our most brutal and legendry British and European winters of the last 100 years. Following a series of mild, wet and often windy winters, 2009-10 came along, reminding us that we can […]
The big story in the past week has been the level of warmth rather than storminess. The jet stream weakened following a hyper active open to the month. The slacker jet has meant lows have been held largely west of the UK thanks to a more dominant high over Europe. This setup has meant a persistent flow straight NNE from a warm Azores and Africa. […]
As we continue to progress through December the connection between UK/Europe and the tropics continue. First it was warmth in November, then floods early December and now it’s back to warmth once again. Any real cold, typical of December is bottled way up in the arctic thanks to a very powerful polar vortex. Check out how warm it […]
The warmth has been longer and stronger than anticipated both over Europe as well as the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and the upcoming period between Dec 16 through Jan 5 is likely to hold the key in terms of where this winter will wind up. The warmth is nothing short of incredible, more May-like […]
The cold and snow of this past weekend across Highland Scotland is history mid and particularly late this week as a surge of exceptionally warm air lifts north via a series of NNE moving occluded fronts. As well as bringing further spells of heavy rain and abundant cloud, these waves of downright warm December air may threaten December records dating back many decades. […]
So far December is playing out as expected, predominantly mild with a strong westerly or zonal flow pattern throughout the mid-latitudes, UK especially! This westerly has accompanied frequent spells of flooding rain. Cold weather has been minimal. Combination of one of the strongest El Nino episodes on record (likely driven enhanced rainfall via a stronger sub-tropical jet) coupled with a very cold […]
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