As we continue to progress through December the connection between UK/Europe and the tropics continue. First it was warmth in November, then floods early December and now it’s back to warmth once again. Any real cold, typical of December is bottled way up in the arctic thanks to a very powerful polar vortex.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: AER
Check out how warm it is on both side of the Atlantic this morning!
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Northern Hemisphere is just boiling this month so far. Likely a direct consequence of the super El Nino.
Credit: Albany University
This is probably one of the warmest December morning’s you’ll ever see in the UK. Our flow is streaming in all the way from the Azores and Africa.
Credit: BBC Weather
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For perspective, the 16C (60F) reported at Achnagart in the West Highlands before daybreak this morning would be considered above normal for a JUNE DAYTIME MAXIMUM. The average low for December? 0C! so it was sitting 16C above normal. Remarkable! This is based on Scotland averages and you’ll likely find this location has lower averages…
| Scotland Weather Averages | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year | |
| Average maximum temperature °C (°F) | 5.0 (41.0) |
5.2 (41.4) |
6.9 (44.4) |
9.3 (48.7) |
12.8 (55.0) |
14.9 (58.8) |
16.9 (62.4) |
16.6 (61.9) |
13.9 (57.0) |
10.8 (51.4) |
7.4 (45.3) |
5.7 (42.3) |
10.5 (50.9) |
|
| Average minimum temperature °C (°F) | -0.2 (31.6) |
-0.1 (31.8) |
0.9 (33.6) |
2.1 (35.8) |
4.5 (40.1) |
7.2 (45.0) |
9.3 (48.7) |
9.2 (48.6) |
7.2 (45.0) |
4.9 (40.8) |
2.0 (35.6) |
0.5 (32.9) |
4.0 (39.2) |
|
| Sunshine hours |
30.8 | 58.1 | 87.6 | 128.2 | 173.2 | 153.2 | 145.0 | 137.5 | 104.4 | 74.5 | 43.2 | 24.7 | 1160.4 | |
| Rainfall mm (inches) |
170.5 (6.7) |
123.4 (4.9) |
138.5 (5.5) |
86.2 (3.4) |
79.0 (3.1) |
85.1 (3.4) |
92.1 (3.6) |
107.4 (4.2) |
139.7 (5.5) |
162.6 (6.4) |
165.9 (6.5) |
169.6 (6.7) |
1520.1 (59.8) |
|
| Rainfall ≥ 1 mm days |
18.6 | 14.8 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 14.1 | 15.9 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 18.2 | 185.8 | |
| Source: Met Office[8] (1971–2000 averages) | ||||||||||||||
Peak overnight temperatures from the ‘Highland Weather’ network. Note the 18C!
Credit: Highland Weather
Here’s where we should be.
Credit: BBC Weather
Credit: BBC Weather
Water vapour imagery clearly shows the war, moist air stream connecting Scotland with subtropics.
Modelling showed a well above normal morning but underestimated the overnight rise…
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
2m temps forecasted for 06z this morning.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Saharan dust, what in mid-December? Yes it’s possible!
According to preliminary Met Office stats, this has been the 4th warmest first half to December on record and may have been 1st or 2nd had it not been colder this past weekend over Scotland.
Credit: Met Office
If this warmth continues and it’s highly likely to do so, we may be looking at the warmest December on record. 5 years after we endured the coldest!
GFS ensemble 5-day mean 2m temp anomalies through the next 15 days shows the continuation of warmer-than-normal.
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Credit: Tropical Tidbits
See this morning’s video for a look at the day by day weather as we head into the weekend. Looking pretty wet and windy tomorrow…
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