The warmth has been longer and stronger than anticipated both over Europe as well as the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and the upcoming period between Dec 16 through Jan 5 is likely to hold the key in terms of where this winter will wind up.

The warmth is nothing short of incredible, more May-like than December and I recon we’re going to see an approach at records over the next few days both by day and by night.

What’s concerning me if the warming that we are seeing over the arctic at 50mb, is in the same area as the last two years, between Asia and NW North America and blue over Greenland extending into Europe, this supports more negative and little to no blocking.

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Is the El Nino perhaps too strong? Again, a lot can change as we enter the meat of the winter and there has been plenty of examples where winter seemed hopeless only be bring wild snow and cold mid January on. As stated previous 46-47 didn’t get going till Jan 20 on and winter lasted through March that year.

I believe the only way we’ll get some decent winter conditions that last more than a couple of days, is if we get a true PV slip or collapse.

This temp profile at 50mb does not support blocking on this side of the pole.

Initial

7 days

10 days

The upcoming 15 days off the GFS ensemble is very reflective of the 50mb strat temp profile with Greenland/North Atlantic trough and Europe high with mean flow for UK out of the SW.

Day 1-5

5-10

10-15

CFSv2 monthly has much more of a warm signal Jan/Feb for Europe!

As for the Canadian I am iffy bout January because I wonder whether there’s enough positive into Greenland to bring more trough than westerly into Europe but for February it continues to build heights over top.

The stronger the vortex, the harder it is to break it but by no means is the winter written off yet I am simply trying to look objectively. I always had this winter very mixed with plenty of mild, wet and windy but also a few substantial cold spells with plenty of snow etc and I also had this winter with worst beyond New Year, not December!

El Nino Now Peaking

It’s worth pointing out that this very warm hemispheric pattern is likely peaking as the El Nino in the Pacific peaks.

In the last 7 days we’ve seen cooling in Nino 1+2

The N Atlantic I think is conducive for blocking on our side.

However, the El Nino is likely overriding any potential feedback of warm water north to the UK to atmosphere but IF warmest waters shift towards the central Pacific, we may see this change through January.

The test comes as to how quickly the drop off can occur. I believe the strong polar vortex and El Nino are two key contributing factors to why it’s been so warm November and December with a lot of warmth holding nearer South America. How quickly the El Nino begins to come off the peak and probably more important is the cooling near South America with transfer of warmest water westwards (if it happens) is likely to determine whether the vortex remains too strong to breakdown or it weakens.

See this morning’s video for more.

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