United Kingdom & Ireland
The Eurasia snow cover is rather bleak this year. https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1053061621411655680 This year is the polar opposite of 2016. https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/796417042907856900 They say a big snow cover in October can enhance high latitude blocking during the winter providing southward incursions of polar air into the mid latitudes, particularly eastern North America and Europe. I’ve shown the below […]
After a pretty active first 20 days of October with flooding rains and named storms, the models are hinting at a colder pattern developing on both sides of the Atlantic to end October/begin November. A strong 1040mb Azores high is currently centred WSW of Ireland. This will feed most of the active weather over top […]
The week started soggy and will end soggy but in between, well it was more like summer again. When you get a stalled conveyor of subtropical moisture piling into windward upslopes of the West Highlands, you know flooding will be the result. For us here in the UK, these upper level rivers typically stall, running […]
As stated at the end of last week, the west Highlands would be under under the gun for a significant multiday rain event which continues this Monday evening. With a near stalled moisture plume connecting a hurricane and the sub tropics with Scotland, you know the totals will mount up. It’s not been one solid […]
We saw a largely undisturbed period of fine, dry, warm anticyclonic weather across many parts of the Boreal North during the height of the summer. Likely driven by the lag of the 2016 Super El Nino, favorable MJO phases and a lack of Atlantic tropical activity. However, since the tropics came to life in August, […]
As we continue to see the ups and downs of the current pattern, our attention is turning to Hurricane Leslie and the complexities which surround her influence on the UK and the wider West of Europe next week. A lot can change and we know the models don’t handle tropical interaction well but there are […]
So far, it’s been mixed with a stormy mid month for northwest Europe but it would appear we wave goodbye to September and greet October on a much quieter note. In just the last 7 days, it’s like we’ve went from late August with 26C to October with 115 mph wind and now early November […]
It’s turning out to be quite the stormy September with one deepening low after the next lining up to strike the UK. It’s like the atmosphere is playing catch up after the unusually lengthy spell of quiet during the summer. The flip in the skipping rope goes down to the uptick in global tropical activity […]
With a busy tropics globally of late, we have seen a lot of warm, humid air lift north thus powering an unusually strong 175 mph Atlantic jet stream. This is throwing one ‘autumnal low’ after the other across the UK. Hot on the heels of Ex Hurricane Helene, the UK, particularly Northern Ireland and southern/central […]
It’s been on the charts for several days and now we’re under Helene’s wind and rain this evening. Nothing unusual about this but sure is bringing a wet night here in Oban with local flooding a given. Latest radar shows that I’m under the shield of heaviest rains from Helene. Surface/precip chart for tonight. While […]
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