Seasonal Forecasts
Today marks the first day of meteorological fall 2016. Many millions from St Louis to Atlantic City will remember this summer as a long hot and uncomfortably sticky one. For those in the South, it’s been soggy too. Unfortunately for the non heat lover, it looks like it’s going to remain on the warm humid side […]
Well we’ve ended one chapter by saying goodbye to meteorological summer and opened a new chapter in the 2016 weather book with the beginning of meteorological autumn. Here was how summer’s final day turned out for the UK. Autumn has opened beautifully in many places. As has been the case for much of summer’s second half, autumn’s opening day we […]
Once 99L and a system which looked to be goner not far SE of Florida has managed to make it into the southern Gulf and ignite into Tropical Storm Hermine. Hermine threatens Florida as a strong tropical storm or hurricane but first caught our attention over 2 weeks ago as a large wave crossing equatorial Africa. Whether a strong […]
Not a whole lot has changed with the models in the medium to long term. Expect a series of lows to sweep across the Northern UK next week. As for Gaston, well I believe his presence will be felt but not in the most obvious way. The system looks to dissipate as a separate entity […]
Not much of a written post today since it’s 2.30am and heading for the Cairngorms. Looks like the trend is for warmer than normal through the first half of Sep. I expect to see several lows cross the N UK later next week but a trend to more settled thereafter. GFS ensemble. FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: […]
We’re on the verge of closing the books on summer 2016 and it should be of no surprise that many cities from Miami to Bangor will have endured a top 5 hot summer. The dry spring and first half to summer lay the ground work for a hot July and August in the East. The record […]
As you can see from the latest rainbow imagery below, Gaston has developed into a mature Category 3 hurricane over the west-central Atlantic packing winds of 120 mph. The hurricane will gradually weaken and transition as it creeps northward over cooler waters and begins to feel the westerlies. HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER […]
It’s been a while since the Atlantic has been as active as this. Tropical Depression 8 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016 The low-level center of the depression is now exposed, with the deep convection diminishing and displaced to the northwest […]
As the tropics waken, so should forecasters here. With Gaston set to drive tropical heat into the mid-latitude pattern, we may have a significant change on the way. The CFSv2 weeklies indicate high pressure dominance over Europe through much of September. If true, how far west the anticyclone reaches shall determine how settled the UK weather shall […]
All the ingredients came together this afternoon as expected. It’s a very warm, steamy and stormy afternoon for much of southern and Midland England thanks to a low spinning near the mouth of the Bristol Channel and associated warm front pulling hot, humid continental air northward into the front zone. The combination of high heat and humidity streaming in at the low levels […]
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