As the tropics waken, so should forecasters here. With Gaston set to drive tropical heat into the mid-latitude pattern, we may have a significant change on the way.

The CFSv2 weeklies indicate high pressure dominance over Europe through much of September. If true, how far west the anticyclone reaches shall determine how settled the UK weather shall be. If we’re on the border between Atlantic trough and Europe ridge then expect a fight and back and fourth pattern A little to the east with trough more over the UK, expect the continuation of what we have now with frequent spells of wind, cloud and rain across NI, Scotland while sunny and warm in Southeast England. I doubt the trough sits right over the UK but if so, you could expect frequently wet, windy and cool conditions. Further west and we’re all in the sunnier, drier weather. Truthfully, it could go either way and this upcoming month is a tough call.

It certainly appears that the CFSv2 sees Gaston’s tropical energy enhancing high pressure and keeping it drier and sunnier than normal. Dry and settled patterns during September can mean warm days but chilly nights with big diurnal variability.

Gaston could go towards Iceland, Iberia or across the UK. If looking for a more settled September, hope for a track either east into Iberia or up towards Iceland.

FEATURE IMAGE CREDIT: Jarlath Flynn

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Precipitation anomaly

2m temp anomaly

See this morning’s video.

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