Not a whole lot has changed with the models in the medium to long term. Expect a series of lows to sweep across the Northern UK next week. As for Gaston, well I believe his presence will be felt but not in the most obvious way.

The system looks to dissipate as a separate entity but it’s heat energy will live on by helping deepen an area of low pressure which looks likely to head towards Iceland while ridging builds over Europe and expands westward reaching the UK.

If this ridge builds strong and west as I expect then the test will be whether it holds.

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Nice satellite view of a powerful Hurricane Gaston well out at sea.

The 5-day mean GFS ensemble shows the trough backing west and looks to hold.

EPS Control snapshots also shows the high.

See today’s video.

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