Seasonal Forecasts
Here comes the… polar vortex? What a turnaround and just look at those 7-DAY MEAN temperatures and departures. Dig this, there’s a rare BLIZZARD WARNING in effect for parts of Hawaii. Graphic via weather.com More in tomorrow’s video. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
It’s been an unusually mild spell following a chilly start to December but there’s good model agreement that the chill is returning along with increased potential for snowfall. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] GFS 7-day mean 2-metre temperature anomalies show Europe turning cold. While Christmas looks largely clear, calm and seasonably cold, it’s all eyes on the upcoming […]
It finally got cold in Alaska, well normal for the time of year. On Friday, Fairbanks recorded it’s first sub-0 day which was the third latest in recorded history. Why? Blame or thank the persistent positive which lead to the warm Alaska/cold Lower 48 winter last year and the cold November just gone. The return of cold […]
It’s been a very wet weekend and start to Christmas week over the UK thanks to a stuck pattern with connection to the tropics. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The reason for such persistent, heavy rains is simple, we’ve a major split in the jet coming off North America. The N branch lifts north and the southern branch drops […]
Rain is heavy and persistent over the Northwest UK right now and you can see in the visible satellite imagery below, that cloud and moisture extends way out into the Atlantic with sub-tropical origin. The sub-tropical or southern branch jet stream is at work. The polar jet or northern branch is to the north. [s2If […]
The big Christmas storm is coming but it’s a question of how strong and where it’s exact track will be. As stated in yesterday#s post, this system will be noteworthy for 3 aspects, 1) wind 2) flooding rainfall 3) surprise southern snow making for a White Christmas in areas which don’t typically see snow at Christmas. Latest […]
A strong westerly (zonal) flow over the next 3 to 5 days means mild with a lot of rain for Ireland and western Great Britain. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] There after, little change in the overall thinking with turn to colder just in time for Christmas and potentially much colder there after. Modelling is fluctuating in it’s day to day solutions but […]
Well there may not be a white Christmas for the East Coast but it’s looking likely from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Mississippi River as a major storm system bombs out over Lake Huron Christmas Day. This WILL cause travel headache, particularly if your flying as winds will be whipping across a very large swathe of […]
As expected, after a milder few days, the cold and snow is back over Highland Scotland with a cold WNW flow. Here’s the current view along the A9 at Drumnochter Summit. Slochd Summit [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] There are minor adjustments in the GFS pre-Christmas solution but the overall theme remains the same. We will continue to see […]
GFS ensemble (51 members) shows a textbook Alaska to Greenland block building through the next 16 days. Heading right for my mid-winter idea. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Here’s a close-up view of North America… couldn’t have drawn these maps better myself. Note where the CORES are, AK & Greenland which means Siberian air gets pulled over the pole […]
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