Seasonal Forecasts
With waters abnormally warm by up to 5C off the US Gulf and Southeast coast, not only is this making for the warmest March and April on record on land, this could also favour early season development. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The warm water itself won’t lead to tropical cyclone development but the pattern we’re entering could […]
A little tight for time today but be sure to watch this morning’s video for more detail on the upcoming bank holiday weekend. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As for later next week and the weekend, well the models keep showing the return of ridging and a decent surge of warmth back into the UK and western mainland […]
Between South and North America, there is two extremes currently going off. While an enhanced sub-tropical jet is providing heavy, flooding rains across parts of the US Gulf Coast region and further heavy rain is expected over Texas in the next 2 weeks, further south into the tropics and sub-tropics it’s a very different story. Abnormally strong upper […]
It’s another day of ‘4 seasons in one day’ with heavy, blustery showers packing rain, hail, sleet and snow but that will be predominantly across Northern Britain. Further south into the bulk of England and Wales it’s a fine, dry day. Highs a chilly 4C over the central Highlands to perhaps 12 or 13C in […]
While the Southeast system looks a mere wind and rain maker which quickly scoots out to sea, it’s the pattern shift coming that’s much more interesting. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The Pacific storm train is ramping up and as systems push into the West, so the thermal gradient sharpens and in turn so will the severe weather […]
I must say, I was impressed when seeing 3pm reports of air temps stuck at 3C in Glasgow with snow falling in places. This followed a morning low of -2. This air mass is comparable to early February rather than late April and of course just days ago we were basking in sunshine and 18-20C. This was the scene […]
Through April 25th, it’s been very wet for much of Texas and across the Gulf Coast region while dry or very dry throughout the West and Northern Plains. Interestingly, the above rainfall anomaly reflects warmest where wettest, coolest where driest. TOP IMAGE CREDIT: WeatherBug [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] However, the next 5 day 500mb height anomalies almost identically […]
Through the weekend, cold, dry arctic air has been filtering south over the UK and Ireland. Thanks to clear skies and light winds, temps dropped to surprisingly low values early Monday morning. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The mid-winter -8.0C at Katesbridge, Co Down was the coldest April night on record for the site and came close to Northern Ireland’s April record of -8.5C […]
It’s was a clear, cold start to Sunday with rural frost around. I was out early and had to scrape the wind screen. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Once the sun begins to warm the lower levels, we raise the lapse rate or temperature difference with height as colder air is back. Since yesterday’s post, a frontal zone […]
I stand by the idea that April’s final week and May’s opening week is cool with a major storm threat on the East Coast. That very system could be responsible for recasting the upper atmospheric pattern and allowing the first real surge of ‘summer warmth’ into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. New York has managed to […]
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