It’s another day of ‘4 seasons in one day’ with heavy, blustery showers packing rain, hail, sleet and snow but that will be predominantly across Northern Britain. Further south into the bulk of England and Wales it’s a fine, dry day. Highs a chilly 4C over the central Highlands to perhaps 12 or 13C in the sunnier, less breeze south or southwest.

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As we progress into Thursday, so the current system exits into the North Sea and high pressure builds in. This will set the stage for a cold, frosty Friday morning with a widespread rural frost. I wouldn’t be surprised if some favoured cold spots approached -7C. -1 to -3 widely away from the urban heat island.

GFS 2m temps Friday morning.

Darker blue area represents -6 which is very possible.

As we head into the bank holiday weekend, as the title suggests, it’s a tail of two halves. With the exception of Ireland and Southern, Southwestern parts of the UK, it’s looking fine, dry and fairly bright Saturday but later Saturday, so a shield of cloud and rain lifts north northeast. So Sunday is looking rather wet, gloomy and disappointing.

As you can see from the below ECMWF surface, our weekend weather is already gathering just off the SW coast Friday.

As we press into Saturday that rain nudges into SW UK and Ireland. Looks like another cold, frosty start for central and northern parts again.

By Sunday’s it’s looking rather dismal.

By bank holiday Monday, the rain clears southern parts but is still over the North moving north. This rain clears into the Norwegian Sea by Tuesday.

While we all catch a break Tuesday, more wind and rain associated with the next system gathers and moves in mid next week.

The Wed-Thu system clears then high pressure allows us to dry out towards next weekend.

Really beyond the upcoming weekend it’s a bit of a guessing game. However the GFS by day 10 is hinting at a scenario which albeit brief, could spell of surge of warmth again as a system approaches from the west, winds turn SW’erly and thicknesses are up. This may bring the return of 20s once again.

This also falls in line with height rises I’ve been hinting at for mid month.

This more unsettled and much cooler regime isn’t just confined to the UK and Ireland but throughout the near continent from N France up through the Low Countries and into Denmark. The good news is, we ALL may dry out and warm up late next week into the weekend.

Check out the shift from the 0-5 and 5-10 day off the ECMWF 500mb height anomalies.

See this morning’s video for the GFS perspective and discussion.

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