Seasonal Forecasts
Danny is off and Erika is on and now as a Tropical Storm heading west towards the Lesser Antilles. This system has environment ‘relatively favourable’ for slow intensification over the next couple of days and so significant impacts look likely for the northern Leeward Islands. As for the United States, this is worth watching as the pattern looks conducive […]
It’s been an interesting past several days of weather across the UK with storms, heat, humidity as well as flooding rains. Canterbury received 61mm (2.4 inches) of rain within a 12 hour period yesterday. That’s over a months worth! According to Nick Miller of the BBC, most of that fell within 1 hour. Check out the skies hanging over London […]
The summer forecast for the US has played out not too bad. It’s been cool and wet from the Central US up into the Great Lakes, warm around the coasts where waters offshore are running well above normal. As for Texas, well it was a very wet spring and start to summer but a very […]
After a disappointing June through August period from Manchester to Dublin to Glasgow to Copenhagen into Scandinavia, our luck may well be about to change for autumn’s opening month. During strong El Nino summers, combined with a colder than normal Atlantic, cooler, wetter conditions tend to rule, the opposite occurs where waters are warmer and the […]
Danny continues to punch through a sea of shear and dry air and therefore it continues to weaken, now a 50 mph tropical storm. Hopefully it can hold together enough to bring some much needed rain to the Caribbean Islands. As for the West Pacific, well we’ve two beasts. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Both heading NNE, recurve? […]
It was an interesting overnight with downpours, gusty wind, hail, thunder and lightning, all associated with a warm front which was propagating westward over Scotland as low pressure formed out over the North Channel. Warm, humid, continental air wrapping around the low’s E/N flank, coupled with strong August sun and a very gust ESE wind […]
Conditions around Danny continue to worsen and as a result the storm continues to weaken as shear and dry air increases, decreasing the sustained winds to 90 mph. Whether Danny weakens into nothing or not, this is a sign of a shift in pattern which is becoming more favourable with waves coming off Africa more and […]
We’ve got a fascinating weekend of weather ahead with big contrasts now underway between Northwest Scotland and Southeast England. In between, a seemingly innocuous stalled front draped from Cornwall to Northumberland is now lighting up as the thermal gradient over the UK increases. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Hot, humid air lifting out of France and bumping up against […]
In the last 48 hours, Danny has found an area of calm along with less dry air thus allowing the system to mature becoming the Atlantic’s fourth named storm and within barely the last 24 hours, the first hurricane and first major hurricane too. Current winds are 115 mph. Danny has become a Category 3 storm pretty far south also. The last time we’ve seen a major hurricane as […]
We have a strengthening negative NAO pattern developing in which an eastern Canada-Greenland-Scandinavian blocking high joins forces and locks in a deep trough underneath. Because high pressure extends south of Greenland and south of Scandinavia into southern and southwestern Europe, the UK sits beneath the eastern flank of the low in which embedded lows shall rotate around […]
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