Danny continues to punch through a sea of shear and dry air and therefore it continues to weaken, now a 50 mph tropical storm.

Hopefully it can hold together enough to bring some much needed rain to the Caribbean Islands.

As for the West Pacific, well we’ve two beasts.

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Both heading NNE, recurve? Heralds cool trough in Eastern US?

Sure, we’ve a trough now and a trough which produced very cold lows this morning over Montana and Wyoming which drifts into the East this week but it looks like ridging takes center stage in the day 5-10 and 10-15. In saying that however, the trough in the East next 5 days splits with a piece going north and more crucially a piece goes south and it’s that southern piece we must watch as the ridge builds through the Great Lakes and this is something we must watch for tropical trouble underneath.

A heads up on what to expect in September. My official forecast comes out tomorrow. By the way, I agree with the below CFSv2!

 

 

How’s the El Nino doing?

 

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