Conditions around Danny continue to worsen and as a result the storm continues to weaken as shear and dry air increases, decreasing the sustained winds to 90 mph. Whether Danny weakens into nothing or not, this is a sign of a shift in pattern which is becoming more favourable with waves coming off Africa more and more.
At this rate of weakening and the world of hostility in the way of Danny there may be not much left by the time it reaches even the Leeward Islands never mind Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.
Latest track according to NHC.
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Most models show a northward path towards the Bahamas.
This tiny circulation is running into a wall of shear and dry air. A small storm in this highly hostile environment can quickly disappear but in El Nino, highly unfavourable years, they’ve also been known to fade and then re-pop hundreds of miles away in a better environment, causing major threats. Andrew appeared then weakened, drifting east of the Bahamas before rapidly intensifying into a Cat 5 monster as it was being pulled into South Florida.
Credit: weather.com
Credit: weather.com
Most years, tropical cyclones aren’t welcome but as for this year, well moisture is badly needed across the increasingly arid Caribbean. This is a direct consequence to the strong El Nino and very warm PDO.
25% of Puerto Rico is in extreme drought.
Credit: weather.com
Nearly a foot of rain BELOW normal since January 1st.
Rain from Danny or increased tropical movement from open Atlantic into Caribbean is very important!
There is definite signs that the Atlantic is becoming more favourable for development of waves coming off Africa and with the trough developing over the Southeast US with ridge over top, the US coastline bears watching in the coming weeks.
GFS surface shows the more active wave train.
Video will be available later! Stay tuned.
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