Rest of Europe
December and meteorological winter starts mild and wet with the Atlantic the rule. The tail end of November finished with a rare SSW but being of the reflective type and supportive of North American cold outbreaks, the result for Europe is a stronger jet and reinforced low pressure dominance. While the MJO is strongly in […]
Welcome to my 16th consecutive Europe winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming meteorological winter period (December-February) are based on current climate state and global drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, IOD, QBO & Solar! Global Drivers Weak La Nina conditions Deepest -IOD Since 1996 Easterly QBO Warm […]
October ends and November begins with a deep Icelandic trough/Euro high with a predominantly mild, moist WSW flow as per week 1 of the CFSv2. The below total accumulated rainfall displays the above nicely with wettest where exposed to the Atlantic rainbands. A windy period too. With possible strengthening of the Euro ridge, I suspect […]
September 2025 will go down as a tail of two halves. A highly zonal, Atlantic low pressure dominated first half followed by cooler, drier, higher pressure dominated 2nd half. As predicted, a wet month with average to below average temps for much of UK/Ireland. Global temp & precip anomaly for September 2025 Europe UK Highlights/Stats […]
Following a September of two halves with low pressure dominance replaced by high, October’s opening days shall grow increasingly unsettled, even stormy. Thanks to a series of lows and dangling fronts separating low pressure to NW and high pressure SE, significant rain (warnings issued) is expected in Western Scotland over the next week or so […]
As is often the case with August, it’s been the most changeable and most influenced month by the tropics. Again though, high pressure and warmth has been a mainstay for the most part despite cool, unsettled start and finish. The presence of Ex-Tropical Storm Dexter, helped produce summer’s 4th heatwave with widespread record heat from […]
It’s very early, but as another meteorological summer draws to close, now is the time to start thinking winter! This short article is not a winter forecast nor 1st update, that will likely come late September/early October but this is an appetizer, a peak at what I look for at this end of summer period. […]
Yet another meteorological summer draws to a close and it appears to be bowing out briefly warm and settled then unsettled (as of 22nd Aug) courtesy of Ex-Hurricane Erin, once a Cat 5. August, as expected was the more up and down month of the three and largely but not exclusively driven by Atlantic tropical […]
It’s been a fascinating summer so far. From cool and at times wet, to record summer heat followed by a record summer storm. Warmth looks set to return in a more modified fashion soon. Back on 12th July, 2025 Scotland was in the midst of a heatwave which set all-time records across the Highlands. On […]
July like June has been a month featuring a little of everything. Some notable heat, cool and wet in what’s been a summer leaning more warm than not. Rainfall distribution has been highly variable, especially with thunderstorms. The first half of the month saw the heat focus from Iberia to Scotland before shifting north and […]
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