Rest of Europe
April 2021 will go down as a notably cold and potentially record dry month, all thanks to a very stubborn, stuck blocked pattern. It’s the persistency in the chill and rain starved pattern that’s been very impressive. Dry April’s aren’t uncommon for the UK but a cold, dry April is. The chill came is two […]
2021 has seen quite the weather seesaw so far with spells of significant cold as well as warm with swings from one extreme to the other. Take February in the UK alone, we had a minimum of -23C recorded at Braemar, Aberdeenshire, 2 weeks later, Santon Downham, Suffolk soared to 18.4C. That’s one of the […]
Through March and indeed April I’ve harped on and on about the lack of cold seen by the long term modelling. This ‘issue’ continues with nothing but ‘hot high pressure’ for the upcoming May-June-July period. We all know that won’t be the case. CFSv2 500mb height anomaly for May-July 2021. Above normal heights equates to […]
Despite some movement back and forth, on the whole High pressure has been holding firm over the UK in recent weeks bringing not just drier but colder than normal conditions. This can likely be attributed to the La Nina and possibly other factors including MJO as well as solar state. The mean position of the […]
It was the perfect setup for an historic March day. An unusually strong anticyclone sandwiched between two cut off lows. The tight pressure gradient and orientation between the low off Morocco and high over the western Med drove a powerful southerly wind which transported hot west Saharan air north over Europe. 500mb height anomaly This […]
Not much write up required here. Quite the rollercoaster this week with taste of summer Monday-Tuesday but winter makes a return by Good Friday. You can see in the below GFS ensemble 5-day mean 500mb pattern the dramatic shift in the blocking high between day 1-5 and 6-10 with retreat from Europe to Greenland. 5-day […]
March 2021 has been a changeable month with flips between high and low pressure, mild and cool and with variable rainfall amounts and distribution. One of the most noteworthy aspects has been the cooling of the continent thanks to cold, continental air flowing west, southwest beneath a persistent area of high pressure often placed west […]
A strong ‘atmospheric boulder’ of high pressure positioned from Azores to Arctic created an atmospheric traffic jam over recent days and presented an unusual temperature profile. This highly amplified, omega block located west of Scotland forced subtropical air into the arctic circle and arctic air south back across Europe. Here was the 500mb setup back […]
The La Nina test (and perhaps in the broader sense the solar minimum) may well have passed a ‘relatively short term’ test when it comes to global temperature over the last 12 months… Here’s the 1st of 2 excerpts from my 2020-21 winter forecast issued early December 2020 Big test coming up La Nina As […]
The CFSv2 weeklies continue to show a blowtorch for Europe next 2-3 weeks, it simply sees ‘no cold’. Despite the +AO/NAO and ‘lack of winter’ now over Western Europe, there’s still plenty of residual cold floating within the mid latitudes in the wake of the strat warm. The CFSv2 (as usual) no longer sees any […]
Recent Comments