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W EUROPE: Pattern Likely To Remain ‘Westerly’ With Models Beating Back Warm, Dry Prospects

W EUROPE: Pattern Likely To Remain ‘Westerly’ With Models Beating Back Warm, Dry Prospects

While April was drier than expected, the May pattern appears to be behaving as forecast with a much cooler and more unsettled regime with the Atlantic being the primary driver. Unlike Feb-Mar-Apr where a blocking high was dominant, that stone is gone and the atmosphere is much more free flowing and bringing up the rain deficits […]

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UK/EUROPE: Cold May Morning’s For Some, Summer Warmth On The Way For Other’s

UK/EUROPE: Cold May Morning’s For Some, Summer Warmth On The Way For Other’s

Under clear skies, light wind and within a cool/ry air mass, temperatures have tumbled to pretty chilly levels by mid May standards in recent nights. But -5 or even -6 isn’t as unusual as you’d think. This morning… -4 Kinbrace / Friday morning… -5.3C at Braemar [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Sure, there’s been times of chill and frost this month but it’s nothing […]

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26C Possible In SE England Next Week But Precipitation Deficit Continues To Recover In Shadow Of Dry Past 90 Days

26C Possible In SE England Next Week But Precipitation Deficit Continues To Recover In Shadow Of Dry Past 90 Days

After a cold start to Friday with temps down to -4, possibly -5 in Highland Scotland, it’s another day of bright or sunny spells mixed with cloud. However, a band of rain will spread across Wales and the central swathe of England from off the Irish Sea today and this will shape the first half of the weekend. Dry to the north […]

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Temporary Taste Of Summer For Southern UK Early Next Week

Temporary Taste Of Summer For Southern UK Early Next Week

This predominantly wet, unsettled pattern remains firmly in control but following another soggy Saturday (dry Sunday) and potentially Monday for mainly Scotland, with low pressure positioned to the west and ridging to the ESE into Monday-Tuesday, this setup provides the year’s second summer into the UK. However, the true warm day appears to be a mere 24 hour […]

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EUROPE: Strong Linkage Between Solar Then Ocean Response To Cold And Warm Winters

EUROPE: Strong Linkage Between Solar Then Ocean Response To Cold And Warm Winters

Recent winters have been warm to run of the mill cold (similar to my school days of the 90s) but the question some of you may be asking is why did we get the cluster of ‘cold winters’ between 2008 and 2011 and why haven’t we seen anything near as extreme in the past 3 to 4 years? […]

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WESTERN EUROPE: North-South Split Next Week As Upper Pattern Becomes Zonal

WESTERN EUROPE: North-South Split Next Week As Upper Pattern Becomes Zonal

Today and tomorrow will be heavily influenced by wind and rain as low pressure continues to lift north over the UK. Wind gusts in excess of 50 mph may hamper shipping through the English Channel today while focus turns to Scotland/N England come Wednesday as the low deepens into the 970s (mb). [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] High pressure temporarily builds […]

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Heavy Rain Spreads North Over UK Tonight Setting Tone For Next 7 Days, Potentially Stormy Wednesday!

Heavy Rain Spreads North Over UK Tonight Setting Tone For Next 7 Days, Potentially Stormy Wednesday!

After what will be a decent bank holiday Monday, a system gathering over western France will spread heavy and persistent rain into the South of England and Wales tonight. This could lead to some local flooding. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] During Tuesday this rain and wind lifts north over the UK but as shown in this morning’s […]

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Classic El Nino Turnaround: Low Pressure Complex Sets Stage For Wet And Windy Week

Classic El Nino Turnaround: Low Pressure Complex Sets Stage For Wet And Windy Week

We currently have a trough and multi-low pressure complex circling the NE Atlantic/North Sea. With 3 lows attached and circling the UK and Ireland, it’s safe to say that the upcoming 7 days will be predominantly unsettled with wind and rain a common factor through this short working week. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] After a dry Feb-Apr and really Jan-Apr […]

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Long Term Pattern Shift Likely In Place As Next Week Looks To Hold ‘Unsettled Theme’

Long Term Pattern Shift Likely In Place As Next Week Looks To Hold ‘Unsettled Theme’

The models are now drawing a much more refined solution to next week with a much more ‘unsettled’ look. Before we go into the details for next week as well as analysing the bigger picture and what that may mean for later, April, as expected was a warmer, drier and sunnier month for the UK […]

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Next UK Warm Surge Looking Likely Between May 9-14 (Next Weekend)

Next UK Warm Surge Looking Likely Between May 9-14 (Next Weekend)

A little tight for time today but be sure to watch this morning’s video for more detail on the upcoming bank holiday weekend. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As for later next week and the weekend, well the models keep showing the return of ridging and a decent surge of warmth back into the UK and western mainland […]

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