Mark Vogan
It’s very early, but as another meteorological summer draws to close, now is the time to start thinking winter! This short article is not a winter forecast nor 1st update, that will likely come late September/early October but this is an appetizer, a peak at what I look for at this end of summer period. […]
Yet another meteorological summer draws to a close and it appears to be bowing out briefly warm and settled then unsettled (as of 22nd Aug) courtesy of Ex-Hurricane Erin, once a Cat 5. August, as expected was the more up and down month of the three and largely but not exclusively driven by Atlantic tropical […]
It was a warm to very warm month for most with variable rainfall distribution across Europe. Global anomaly Hot start for UK with 35.8C recorded at Faversham, Kent on the 1st but probably the most notable heat came to the UK mid-month. 27/28+C was witnessed at stations from south to north coast. 5 sites set […]
It’s been a fascinating summer so far. From cool and at times wet, to record summer heat followed by a record summer storm. Warmth looks set to return in a more modified fashion soon. Back on 12th July, 2025 Scotland was in the midst of a heatwave which set all-time records across the Highlands. On […]
July like June has been a month featuring a little of everything. Some notable heat, cool and wet in what’s been a summer leaning more warm than not. Rainfall distribution has been highly variable, especially with thunderstorms. The first half of the month saw the heat focus from Iberia to Scotland before shifting north and […]
While Southern and Southeastern England has taken the majority of summer’s heat. The most recent installment of hot weather however was shared more widely and boy was it not an impressive spell, especially for Scotland as well as Ireland, Northern Ireland up into Scandinavia including Iceland. Through 10th July and before the arrival of the […]
For much of Europe away from Scandinavia and Russia, June has been a warm month (one of the warmest from Spain to Germany), cooler and wetter Iceland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Baltics. The 500mb geopotential shows an extreme Icelandic trough/Med ridge setup leading to persistent heat across the South vs much […]
Despite the unsettled end to May and likely ‘wipe out’ of being one of the driest May’s, spring 2025 goes down as mildest, sunniest on record for the UK and Ireland and one of the driest. For Europe, May was warm and dry in the west and cool and wet in the east. Spring as […]
Key Factors Higher confidence Lower confidence First of all let’s see what’s considered normal. Tropical Cyclone Climatology Number Named systems Hurricanes Major Hurricanes 1 Jun 20 Aug 11 Sep 1 2 Jul 17 Aug 26 Sep 19 3 Aug 3 Sep 7 Oct 28 4 Aug 15 Sep 16 – 5 Aug 22 Sep 28 […]
Welcome to my 15th annual UK/Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies etc. Quick Summer […]
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