Mark Vogan
September 2025 will go down as a tail of two halves. A highly zonal, Atlantic low pressure dominated first half followed by cooler, drier, higher pressure dominated 2nd half. As predicted, a wet month with average to below average temps for much of UK/Ireland. Global temp & precip anomaly for September 2025 Europe UK Highlights/Stats […]
Following a September of two halves with low pressure dominance replaced by high, October’s opening days shall grow increasingly unsettled, even stormy. Thanks to a series of lows and dangling fronts separating low pressure to NW and high pressure SE, significant rain (warnings issued) is expected in Western Scotland over the next week or so […]
Latest Key Factors We’re increasingly likely to observe at least WEAK La Nina conditions through late autumn and early winter. 3 KEY DRIVERS: La Nina, Easterly QBO, -IOD Latest equatorial Pacific SSTA’s show La Nina conditions developing. The important region to watch is for ENSO status is 3.4 Model Projection Examples of Easterly QBO years: […]
August 2025 was another warm month for UK, Ireland W Europe as well as many parts of the Northern Hemisphere. Not everywhere was warm, however, it was cool in places such as the Baltic states, parts of Kazakhstan, Mongolia as well as Eastern US. 3rd warmest August on record globally behind 2023 and 2024 with […]
As is often the case with August, it’s been the most changeable and most influenced month by the tropics. Again though, high pressure and warmth has been a mainstay for the most part despite cool, unsettled start and finish. The presence of Ex-Tropical Storm Dexter, helped produce summer’s 4th heatwave with widespread record heat from […]
It’s very early, but as another meteorological summer draws to close, now is the time to start thinking winter! This short article is not a winter forecast nor 1st update, that will likely come late September/early October but this is an appetizer, a peak at what I look for at this end of summer period. […]
Yet another meteorological summer draws to a close and it appears to be bowing out briefly warm and settled then unsettled (as of 22nd Aug) courtesy of Ex-Hurricane Erin, once a Cat 5. August, as expected was the more up and down month of the three and largely but not exclusively driven by Atlantic tropical […]
It was a warm to very warm month for most with variable rainfall distribution across Europe. Global anomaly Hot start for UK with 35.8C recorded at Faversham, Kent on the 1st but probably the most notable heat came to the UK mid-month. 27/28+C was witnessed at stations from south to north coast. 5 sites set […]
It’s been a fascinating summer so far. From cool and at times wet, to record summer heat followed by a record summer storm. Warmth looks set to return in a more modified fashion soon. Back on 12th July, 2025 Scotland was in the midst of a heatwave which set all-time records across the Highlands. On […]
July like June has been a month featuring a little of everything. Some notable heat, cool and wet in what’s been a summer leaning more warm than not. Rainfall distribution has been highly variable, especially with thunderstorms. The first half of the month saw the heat focus from Iberia to Scotland before shifting north and […]
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