Mark Vogan
The mild, dry theme through March has continued throughout much of April across most of Europe. While the pattern did turn more unsettled, especially in the run-up to Easter, rainfall has remained subpar while temperatures have remained average to above. Unusually persistent blocking remains the primary culprit! Below is the 500mb geopotential heights 1 March […]
The run-up to Easter 2025 is an increasingly unsettled one following weeks of dry high pressure dominance. Unfortunately this outlook has had to be produced earlier than usual and so the details discussed below for the day-to-day breakdown is likely to change so this is merely a rough guide to the weather conditions expected for […]
March 2025 will go down as a firmly milder and drier than average month for UK and Ireland and just another warmer-than-normal month for ALL of Europe except Iberia. Blocking High pressure has dominated central and northern Europe forcing the Atlantic flow south bringing a much wetter (and cooler) than usual month to Iberia. Some […]
Another February and meteorological winter is drawing to an end. A month and season milder and drier than average for UK and Ireland, another very mild winter for most of Europe but colder February for central and southeast. February temp anomaly through the 26th. Looks like January and February combined was average to slightly below […]
Although there’s still 8 days remaining, Here’s a scoring of my 2024-25 winter forecast. Here’s what was said back on the 24th November 2024. Global drivers/teleconnections in play as of late November. What we know… Warm oceans overall NEUTRAL to Weak La Nina Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Neutral IOD […]
January 2025 has been a mixed month but largely dominated by a -AO/NAO hemispheric setup with likely coldest opening 10 days since 2010 for both UK and Ireland. The cold first half broke around the 12th as northerlies were abruptly replaced by southerlies causing the temperature to lift by some 25-32C within a mere 72 […]
It was one for the record books, a true ‘once in a lifetime’ event for the Gulf Coast states. Two high pressure cells, one over the Rockies and the other over the East-Central states driving dry polar air out over the Gulf of Mexico combined with a developing low pressure system to crate an exceptionally […]
December and the first of the three meteorological winter months has been mild for Ireland, UK and much of Europe. Europe temp anomaly through 24th December. One of the warmest December’s over the higher lats of Eurasia, North America but also note the chill across N Africa, Middle East and mid lat Asia. The rest […]
A quite amazing November draws to an end. For UK, from warmest, driest first half to the month to significantly colder 2nd half which has made for a near average and for some, colder than average month. Europe has seen wild swings too with Iceland perhaps witnessing the most outrageous of all followed closely by […]
Welcome to my 15th consecutive European winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period will be based on current climate and climate drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, Solar & much more! An important factor to consider is the level of warmth in our oceans, […]
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