Mark Vogan
While Southern and Southeastern England has taken the majority of summer’s heat. The most recent installment of hot weather however was shared more widely and boy was it not an impressive spell, especially for Scotland as well as Ireland, Northern Ireland up into Scandinavia including Iceland. Through 10th July and before the arrival of the […]
For much of Europe away from Scandinavia and Russia, June has been a warm month (one of the warmest from Spain to Germany), cooler and wetter Iceland, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Russia, Baltics. The 500mb geopotential shows an extreme Icelandic trough/Med ridge setup leading to persistent heat across the South vs much […]
Despite the unsettled end to May and likely ‘wipe out’ of being one of the driest May’s, spring 2025 goes down as mildest, sunniest on record for the UK and Ireland and one of the driest. For Europe, May was warm and dry in the west and cool and wet in the east. Spring as […]
Key Factors Higher confidence Lower confidence First of all let’s see what’s considered normal. Tropical Cyclone Climatology Number Named systems Hurricanes Major Hurricanes 1 Jun 20 Aug 11 Sep 1 2 Jul 17 Aug 26 Sep 19 3 Aug 3 Sep 7 Oct 28 4 Aug 15 Sep 16 – 5 Aug 22 Sep 28 […]
Welcome to my 15th annual UK/Europe summer forecast. As always, when compiling this forecast for the upcoming June-August period there are multiple factors which are taken into consideration. They include the past winter pattern, type of spring just observed as well as the current ENSO state, global and regional sea surface temperature anomalies etc. Quick Summer […]
The mild, dry theme through March has continued throughout much of April across most of Europe. While the pattern did turn more unsettled, especially in the run-up to Easter, rainfall has remained subpar while temperatures have remained average to above. Unusually persistent blocking remains the primary culprit! Below is the 500mb geopotential heights 1 March […]
The run-up to Easter 2025 is an increasingly unsettled one following weeks of dry high pressure dominance. Unfortunately this outlook has had to be produced earlier than usual and so the details discussed below for the day-to-day breakdown is likely to change so this is merely a rough guide to the weather conditions expected for […]
March 2025 will go down as a firmly milder and drier than average month for UK and Ireland and just another warmer-than-normal month for ALL of Europe except Iberia. Blocking High pressure has dominated central and northern Europe forcing the Atlantic flow south bringing a much wetter (and cooler) than usual month to Iberia. Some […]
Another February and meteorological winter is drawing to an end. A month and season milder and drier than average for UK and Ireland, another very mild winter for most of Europe but colder February for central and southeast. February temp anomaly through the 26th. Looks like January and February combined was average to slightly below […]
Although there’s still 8 days remaining, Here’s a scoring of my 2024-25 winter forecast. Here’s what was said back on the 24th November 2024. Global drivers/teleconnections in play as of late November. What we know… Warm oceans overall NEUTRAL to Weak La Nina Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Neutral IOD […]
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