Mark Vogan
Another February and meteorological winter is drawing to an end. A month and season milder and drier than average for UK and Ireland, another very mild winter for most of Europe but colder February for central and southeast. February temp anomaly through the 26th. Looks like January and February combined was average to slightly below […]
Although there’s still 8 days remaining, Here’s a scoring of my 2024-25 winter forecast. Here’s what was said back on the 24th November 2024. Global drivers/teleconnections in play as of late November. What we know… Warm oceans overall NEUTRAL to Weak La Nina Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) Neutral IOD […]
January 2025 has been a mixed month but largely dominated by a -AO/NAO hemispheric setup with likely coldest opening 10 days since 2010 for both UK and Ireland. The cold first half broke around the 12th as northerlies were abruptly replaced by southerlies causing the temperature to lift by some 25-32C within a mere 72 […]
It was one for the record books, a true ‘once in a lifetime’ event for the Gulf Coast states. Two high pressure cells, one over the Rockies and the other over the East-Central states driving dry polar air out over the Gulf of Mexico combined with a developing low pressure system to crate an exceptionally […]
December and the first of the three meteorological winter months has been mild for Ireland, UK and much of Europe. Europe temp anomaly through 24th December. One of the warmest December’s over the higher lats of Eurasia, North America but also note the chill across N Africa, Middle East and mid lat Asia. The rest […]
A quite amazing November draws to an end. For UK, from warmest, driest first half to the month to significantly colder 2nd half which has made for a near average and for some, colder than average month. Europe has seen wild swings too with Iceland perhaps witnessing the most outrageous of all followed closely by […]
Welcome to my 15th consecutive European winter forecast. In this forecast, the conclusions drawn for the upcoming 90-day meteorological winter period will be based on current climate and climate drivers at play including current global SST profile, ENSO, Solar & much more! An important factor to consider is the level of warmth in our oceans, […]
October 2024 will go down as warmer than average for UK, Ireland and Europe as a whole. Near average UK rainfall with the usual regional variability. For Europe, considerably drier than average while others, record wet. MET OFFICE: An average October comes to a close Big AO/NAO Flip! It’s been a month with big swings […]
As we progress through October, the various teleconnections we look at for winter prediction becomes more important and interesting. So what do we look for? Teleconnection / Current Status Equatorial Pacific (Neutral-La Nina) North Pacific SST Profile (-PDO) North Atlantic SST (+AMO) Indian Ocean SST (Neutral IOD) QBO (west) Behavior of the MJO Siberian snow […]
September has been a crazy month with big temperature swings and historic rain/flood events for UK as well as Europe. From record +NAO in August to record -NAO in September with unusually strong blocking over Greenland has had a lot to do with how extreme this month has been. According to World Climate Service, based […]
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