March followed February with an above average temperature for the month throughout the UK, France, Low Countries and Scandinavia, slightly below average for Iberia, much of Germany and firmly below for Italy, Balkans and SE.

March anomaly

The final 5 days of March and first 2 days of April was below normal for the UK but the month of March was too warm to turn around.

Off to a good start in my long standing April idea, a very cold SW, very warm SE first 48 hours of April with temperatures reaching 34C in Turkey while some places in France and Spain observed record cold!

Despite loosing the biting NNE flow and coldest 850s, with the high toppling in from the west, winds have dropped, skies have cleared and we are now observing the coldest nights over the UK and likely in the next couple of nights over parts of the Low Countries, France and even Spain.

https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/status/1510271122461368325

Some unusually cold days on the near continent.

https://twitter.com/ThierryGooseBC/status/1510288432613847048

https://twitter.com/MarkVogan/status/1510390132721033235

Strat Warming Responsible for the major pattern flip!

This flip comes in response to the strong strat warming that’s came in waves through March with a sharp secondary burst occurring about 10 days ago.

What next?

The big test comes as we progress through the month to see if that warming has lasting effects on the tropospheric pattern and whether we flip back to warmer than average from mid-April on as some models suggest.

While the current weekend sees HP to the west of the UK weaken and slip south, opening the door to warmer Atlantic air filtering into the UK within a ‘warm sector’, there is further ‘northerly flow’ to arrive almost immediately after the intrusion of warmer air early to mid next week.

With the presence of at least 2 LP’s sliding west-east as the arctic air returns, it looks like we significantly increase NORTHERN snow threats.

CFSv2 week 1 shows firmly below average.

Week 2 also below average (except Highlands) which sets a good base for an overall colder than average month IF there’s no major warmth which GFS ensemble is hinting at!

Week 3 shows stronger warming over the UK but note ‘cool lingers’ for England and Wales. Notice the cold building over Russia.

CFSv2 30-days continues to show below average temperatures widely across Europe including the UK except for Highland Scotland, NW Ireland, N coast Spain and the Alps.

As arctic air continues to push south, warmth from Africa is attempting to push northward. We could see some big temperature variations including late next week when Spain may take a run at it’s first 30C.

Looks like a potential for record cold this weekend into early week followed by record or near record warmth next weekend.

Tags: featured, monthly-outlook