It’s safe to say we have a very wintry, potentially worst week ahead with persistent easterlies winds driving frequent ‘sea effect’ snow showers in off the North Sea with enhanced polar-low system snow propagating westwards.

So, the wait is over and the stage is set. Can I just say, what a textbook example of a Siberian blast we have with not one but two ridge cores in and around 1060mb (Greenland and Scandinavia) which are the wheels transporting bitter Siberian air out of Asia across Europe, the UK, Ireland the Atlantic and all the way to North America. The entire Northern Hemisphere is in reverse.

Not often do we see -15 to -20C air at 850mb over the UK.

The below analysis is based on the current run of the GFS and we all know the finer details will shift around day by day and nearer real time. However, there are a few definites with regards to the upcoming weather for the week.

1. Coldest air of the entire winter
2. 850mb (5,000ft) temps will creep into ‘rare -15 to -20C’ range.
3. Air temps will barely get above freezing with wind chill well below both day and night.
4. Snow will most definitely affect eastern parts and for most of the UK.
5. Disruption where snow is heaviest is a given.

The first significant snow threat arrives late Monday into Tuesday as a polar low-like system brings increased wind and precipitation. A biting easterly gale with significant wind chill shall accompany this feature. Eastern parts of England and Scotland will be most at risk from disruptive snow but this snow system is likely to affect central and western areas.

Projected wind chill for early Tue.

Note the GFS snow depths increase in the east and spread westwards late Mon through late Wed.

Next wave of enhanced snowfall targets north and east Scotland Wed afternoon.

Snow amounts increase for the Highlands and North.

Then the Central Lowlands take the brunt of a feeder band.

Then the model has a system lifting north with rain readily turning over the snow across southern Ireland and the UK.

By next weekend, snow totals will have stacked up big time.

More in the coming days!

Tags: arctic blast, europe cold, siberian blast, uk cold