While we’ve enjoyed plenty of cold, crisp, bright winter days through much of the month so far, a milder theme is beginning to show, particularly for northern and western areas thanks to high pressure positioned over southern UK and near continent. Winds blowing around the W/N flank of the high is drawing in the milder air. Beneath the high it remains cooler, drier, brighter but the overall air mass is warmer than we’ve seen.

This morning’s temperature profile over Scotland showed the influence of milder Atlantic air riding around the high positioned to the south. The far north and Western Isles saw 6-8C under breezier, cloudier conditions while under clearer, calmer skies, frost and icy patches was once again dominant further south.

The month so far.

Upcoming 5 days off the GFS ensemble.

With high pressure comes a rather repetitive spell of weather with fog forming under the calm, settled conditions and further towards the west, it remains mildest, cloudiest and wettest.

So, as we head into this week, more and more folks will be asking will there be a white Christmas? As is often the case, the answer remains highly unlikely for much of England and Wales and unknown for Scotland based on current model projections and complexity of a ‘progressive’ pattern we develop this weekend compared to the relatively quiet pattern we’re in now.

The system which the GFS and JMA has pushing through Scotland/N England Christmas Eve may have enough cold air entrained, for a Highland white Christmas but given it’s a week out and it’s a highly fluid setup, it remains too early to say yes or no for lower levels.

Here’s the GFS surface/precip for Christmas day.

The JMA like the GFS offers a little hope for northern parts.

500mb height anomaly

850mb anomaly

Not so much the ECMWF

500mb height anomaly

850mb anomaly