There’s a heck of a lot of attention on late weekend into next week and rightly so but let’s look quickly at the here and now.

The current system centered near Iceland has brought not only spells of heavy rain and gusty winds but exceptionally mild temperatures before daybreak this morning as well as this afternoon.

Stepping outside this morning and you could have been forgiven into thinking it was a blustery but sultry July morning.

Cairngorm recorded a gust of 106 mph this afternoon.

Heading out to work in the next few hours? Be prepared for #wet and #windy weather in the north and west. It's very mild everywhere though pic.twitter.com/MxogOz8WlI

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 13, 2017

It's positively balmy out there. Temperatures in the mid-teens across the island, with 18C at Magilligan on the north coast at 6am. pic.twitter.com/KfaBXUKjJ1

— Barra Best (@barrabest) October 13, 2017

Ophelia is grabbing a lot of press these days as it continues to strengthen SW of the Azores. Now packing 105 mph winds, it’s the strongest hurricane this far east and outwith the tropics since Gordon in 2012 and continues to set it’s sights on Ireland Monday.

Here are the 5 AM AST Oct. 13 (10 AM Oct. 13 Irish/British Time) key messages for Hurricane #Ophelia: https://t.co/Dl4SklCoht pic.twitter.com/4yUFOSpt5o

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) October 13, 2017

Current intensity of #Ophelia (105 mph) is strongest for hurricane this far east ( 34.7°W) in Atlantic outside of tropics since Gordon-2012. pic.twitter.com/a7gJVBAPlm

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 13, 2017

The timing of Ophelia couldn’t be more incredible as Sunday night into Monday coming is on the exact night 30 years when the Great Storm of ’87 hit.

30 years ago today Hurricane Floyd made landfall in Key West, FL, 3 days later it became Britain’s most destructive storm in 300 years

30 years ago today, category 1 Hurricane Floyd made landfall near #KeyWest, with maximum sustained winds of around 75 mph. #FLwx #FLKeys pic.twitter.com/cpj8gUpX6H

— NWS Key West (@NWSKeyWest) October 12, 2017

Thirty years after the Great Storm of '87, Hurricane Ophelia is heading towards the UK. Here's how they compare: pic.twitter.com/QAMbDhNiug

— PA Media (@PA) October 13, 2017

30 years on and we’re watching history repeat. There are differences of course and hopefully our upcoming storm is nowhere near as severe!

70-90 mph winds likely

With transition process potentially still underway as intense and tightly wound Ophelia passes just W or over Ireland, we could see the development of a sting jet or some downward energy transfer which may support stronger wind gusts than models currently suggest. I could see gusts widely 50-70 mph but is exposed areas, 90 mph are possible and as the strongest winds depart Ireland and move over Scotland, high ground recording sites such as Aonach Mor and Cairngorm may well see gusts well in excess of 100 mph.

ARPEGE model

GFS model

ECMWF model

Tags: hurricane ophelia