We’re ending January with a stratospheric warming event as temperatures have risen 60C at within the past week at 10mb over the Arctic.

This is within SSWE criteria.

AO will go negative in response!

Not related but it was a cold start to this morning over Highland Scotland with -10C recorded at Braemar but in contrast, it was 20C warmer on the SW coast of England.

Below is the initial GFS 10mb temp profile over the NH and note the strength of warming crossing the pole, forcing the cold pool out over the Atlantic.

Keep in mind that the temp at 10mb is one thing and is another down at 50mb. The key to this strat warming is level of downward transfer into the troposphere in order to adjusting the ridges and troughs at 500mb down to the surface. Another vital component is exactly where this warming takes place.

Notice that the GFS indicates a displacement and not collapse of the PV. It’s stretched west-east North Atlantic position nicely reflects this week’s deepening trough Atlantic to UK trough in relationship with a strengthening zonal jet stream.

So, the current warming and position of the PV indicates a stormier low pressure dominated Atlantic pattern for the UK and Western Europe but what’s the script at 10mb a week from now?

Interestingly the GFS shows a ribbon of warmth extend from Siberia across the pole and down over Greenland with the PV positioned over Scandinavia rather than west of Ireland.

This COULD correlate to a colder UK/Western Europe EVENTUALLY with trough core shifting from Ireland late this week to perhaps Scandinavia late NEXT WEEK (remember the 6-10 day lag) with building heights extending from Greenland down over the North Atlantic.

GFS ensemble has the right idea but modelling tends to not see a particular pattern until an SSWE is complete and the warming from stratosphere responds with the atmosphere beneath.

If it were to materialise, a colder UK pattern with increased chances of snow may not show up till the 2nd week of Feb.

Watch this morning’s video.

Tags: arctic oscillation, north atlantic oscillation, strat warming, sudden stratospheric warming event