The GFS ensemble continues to show the large warm pool at 50hpa shifting from Northern Greenland to Scandinavia and towards the northern Europe-Asia border by day 10. This would be a similar position to what we saw back in October-November.

This to me reflects a Scandinavia high pressure blocking pattern. Favourable for at least some easterly flow from Siberia towards Europe.

As shown yesterday, the CFSv2 5-day chunks at least hint at this general idea. Note the westward progression of Siberian air around Christmas, a pullback then reload of even colder air after New Year.

Watch this morning’s video.