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First and foremost, Tropical Storm Matthew is born after the hurricane hunters found a closed low level circulation and winds of 60 mph this morning. This storm will become a hurricane as it continues moving westward in a favourable environment, steered by an upper ridge to the north.

The United States should pay close attention. If the inevitable northward turn happens early, this ‘should’ stay east of the US but I suspect this will track far enough west which means this could pose a threat next week for either the Gulf or Atlantic coast.

GFS ensembles suggest the Northeast should worry.

Majority of models take this to category 2-3.

Waters are bubbling south of Cuba…

Meanwhile, a near stationary cut off upper low is helping bring drought relieving rainfall up the Eastern Seaboard with flooding likely while folks in the Tennessee Valley and interior Southeast can switch off the AC and open up the windows this weekend…

See this morning’s video.

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