Not much snow to talk about through the next 10 days across Europe.

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Super El Nino powered warmth typically takes time to weaken and shrink and so the warm open to meteorological autumn is likely to continue for much of North America and Europe. Both GFS ensemble and CFSv2 indicate the continuation of an unsettled but SW air flow drawing up warmth from the subtropics after a brief taste of early ocean modified chill from Greenland as the core of the mid atlantic ridge shifts west towards Bermuda shifting the upper air flow northeasterly in over the UK.

Beyond day 10 both models suggest building heights and a settling down of the pattern over Western Europe including the UK. Certainly no sign of anything particularly cold through mid October.

GFS ensemble 5-day mean

CFSv2 5-day mean

See this morning’s video.

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