As we approach the end of September you’d expect to experience cooler, windier days as the jet strengthens in response to the increased north-south temperature gradient. We are indeed seeing the jet strength increase, especially when tropical cyclones push heat northward while central Greenland gets ever closer to -40C.

There’s no question that the pattern is becoming more energised as we undergo the seasonal transition from warm to cold. However the mid-latitudes takes time to shrink it’s reservoir of warmth built up throughout the summer. The last 2-3 weeks has seen the jet generally north of the UK, keeping us in the warmer, more humid air. That looks to be the case through early and mid next week too.

However, the models are seeing that jet sink gradually southward, clipping Scotland this weekend bringing gales and heavy rain. However the next big low according to the GFS has it’s sights on the UK mid/late next week bringing that second push of warmth with potential for mid-20s again in SE England but it’s what follows which could be a shock. This low has two very distinct sides and the first brings the return of summer while it’s backside could present our first true taste of autumn.

850mb temps AHEAD of the system mid next week.

Behind it…

See this morning’s video. Talks winter!