If your in the Southeast of England, your summer is improving following a poor June with drier, brighter and warmer likely holding through the next 10 days give or take some shower activity here and there. However northern England and particularly Northern Ireland and Scotland I’m afraid sees little change to end July and begin August. The key the position and strength of the Azores high.

After a wet June, July has been dry in the South and this may help support a warmer than normal August here.

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Rainfall anomaly for the last 7 days.

The Azores high remains strong and extends it’s influence east across Portugal, Spain and the Med Sea while the storm track riding the northern flank continues to bring rain bearing Atlantic systems over northern Ireland and Scotland.

England and Wales have cooled and shall receive plenty of showery activity over the next few days but on the whole, it’s warmer, drier and sunnier here.

The GFS ensemble 5-day mean shows little change in the upper height field with negative over Scotland, positive over Spain.

Another strong Iberian heat surge for the upcoming weekend?

The ECMWF 850mb temp anomaly through the next 16 days shows significant cooling over the UK.

Rainfall forecast for upcoming 10 days.

See this morning’s video.

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