Archive for 2014
The unusual blocking pattern continues to bring extremes across the US. This time it’s in the form of rainfall with weekend flooding across parts of the Carolinas. Thanks to the passing of an unusually strong summer low through the Great Lakes, extreme rain and flash flooding struck the Detroit, MI area yesterday. How significant? An all-time record rainfall for August and […]
After producing damaging winds, shutting down festivals and events as well as causing significant flooding from Cardiff to Scotland North Coast, former tropical cyclone Bertha is not done with Europe yet. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The system will continue to spin as a deep low over the North Sea, eventually weakening and filling later this week into […]
The rains continue pouring on the East while they shall ease in the West. Flooding hit the Carolinas this weekend. Focus shifts north and south this upcoming 7 days as seen by the QPF below. While some models show a warm end to August, the CFSv2 has turn chilly. CFSv2 temps for August Still experiencing issues with […]
Well the GFS has hands down beaten the ECMWF on Bertha’s track as well as intensity, deepening from 1001mb off SW Britain to now nearer 978mb off Aberdeen. As Bertha tracked NNE the system continued to deepen as seen by the GFS with wind speeds and rainfall increasing. The combination of Highland topography and very warm water (compared to normal) over […]
Rainfall has been most significant so far with Ex-tropical storm/hurricane Bertha which continues to drive intense rain pulses and lines of thunderstorms north over Ireland and the UK as well as France into the Low Countries. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Despite Bertha no longer being tropical, these systems still retain tropical energy, helped by a warmer than normal […]
Iselle has been battering Hawaii’s eastern chain throughout the past 12-24 hours with damaging wind and flooding rain. The system however has been rapidly weakening on final approach with a downgrade to TS status ahead of landfall. Therefore there was technically no ‘first hurricane landfall in 22 years’. Poor representation of a tropical cyclone this morning with […]
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While we know the remnants of Bertha is coming, it’s now a question of how big the impact is and what next. The GFS is clearly much stronger with Bertha than the ECMWF. Interestingly the GFS has been consistent at taking Bertha into the central or southern UK, likely producing gales (maybe not just inland) as well […]
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For the first time in nearly 20 years, a hurricane looks set to make a direct landfall on paradise. Through the rest of today, Iselle is expected to Cat 1, 80 mph intensity as she makes landfall tonight on Hawaii’s Big Island where a rare hurricane warning is currently in effect. Originally, it was thought that both cooler subsurface waters […]
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