For the first time in nearly 20 years, a hurricane looks set to make a direct landfall on paradise. Through the rest of today, Iselle is expected to Cat 1, 80 mph intensity as she makes landfall tonight on Hawaii’s Big Island where a rare hurricane warning is currently in effect.

Originally, it was thought that both cooler subsurface waters between the storm and the islands as well as dry air would weaken her into a tropical storm with a mere limp across the string of pearls but latest models keep this system as a hurricane up till landfall. Something not witnessed here since September 1992. Most storms no north or south of these islands but we have a rare scenario where TWO hurricanes directly threaten. We have of course Julio following behind Iselle.

Yes there is a slightly less impressive infrared presentation but she maintains intensity and there has been recent recon pass through’s to support the current status.

Water vapour shows the driest air well south and west of the system and south of the islands, therefore enough moisture associated with the storm, should help her maintain strength and structure.

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Here’s the recent plot from NOAA recon which found 80mph surface winds and 115 mph flight level winds within Iselle.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s latest track.

Expected to make landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane overnight tonight.

Probabilities

Current tropical storm/hurricane watches and warnings in effect.

Projected winds through tonight (kts) (local time)

Wind gusts at 2am Fri (local time) in kts

Projected wave heights (local time)

As for rainfall, a tropical system is naturally going to drop a lot of rainfall, especially in the steep upslope areas of the Hawaiian Islands. Expect a widespread 1-3 inches over the eastern chain but on easterly upslope areas we may see over a foot of rain which naturally increases the flood and mudslide threat. The good news is, Iselle isn’t coming in from a southeasterly direct which tends to be the worst cause for bigger rain totals and flooding but we can still expect flooding from this.

Unfortunately Hawaii is hard to make out in the below QPF rainfall chart through the next 72 hrs but you get the idea. Note precip swaths with both Iselle and Julio following.

As for weather across the Lower 48. Lot’s of rain on the way for the East and Southeast through the next 7 days.

Will take more of a look at the Lower 48 pattern tomorrow.

See today’s video for discussion on Iselle and Julio’s potential impacts on Hawaii.

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Tags: hurricane, hurricane iselle, tropical cyclone