Archive for 2014
While the Atlantic still rules the Western Europe pattern this upcoming work week, I’m finally beginning to see the first signs of a potential pattern shift and shift towards colder in the 1-2 week range. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] We know the Arctic Oscillation is TANKING with a highly amplified pattern setting up. With slackening of the PV, arctic cold pools are […]
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I’ve focused on the details of the coming cold waves as they dive out of the arctic but I want to look briefly at what follows this outbreak through next week. Does it hit and hold or does it kick out only to be replaced by mild. ALL indexes look perfect for this cold that’s […]
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The Atlantic remains king of the Western Europe pattern these days. I’m sure you’ve seen the images of severe flooding down in southern France into Italy. Unfortunately that setup remains into next week with more low pressure and increased flood potential. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As for us here in the UK and Ireland, well both GFS, […]
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As shown in yesterday’s post, once Super Typhoon Nuri is bombing out over the North Pacific, challenging record low pressure near 920mb within the next 48 hours. It’s this low which will explode heights over Alaska and the arctic, dislodging a piece of the polar vortex and forcing it south. Models have a mid-winter level 1044mb high […]
We’re seeing an early start to stratospheric warming over Siberia and the North Pacific Ocean. This appears to be fuelling early season arctic outbreaks into North America but for us here in Western Europe to waiting game continues. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] When it comes to cold here, we watch for a term known as sudden stratospheric […]
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We have the second, potentially stronger arctic blast of November heading for the central and eastern US and when joining up all the variables, this winter looks increasingly wild with comparisons to the late 70s showing up. With all the years joined together with all the same variables to this year. Dec looks like this (above chart!)! The coming cold […]
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