As shown in yesterday’s post, once Super Typhoon Nuri is bombing out over the North Pacific, challenging record low pressure near 920mb within the next 48 hours. It’s this low which will explode heights over Alaska and the arctic, dislodging a piece of the polar vortex and forcing it south. Models have a mid-winter level 1044mb high crossing from Canada into Montana/North Dakota late this weekend/early next week potentially sending temps to 40 below normal.

Check out the evolution of all this with that ‘bomb’ over the NP which causes rapid height rises over far northern North America. It’s this major height rise (strat warming/tanking -AO) which will send the major cold southward.

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The models have a major arctic high dropping south.

Here are the 12z temps/anomalies

Actual 12z 2-metre temps… equally as impressive as the high which comes down next week…

GFS snow chart

ECMWF

Will have a video tomorrow morning!

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