I’ve focused on the details of the coming cold waves as they dive out of the arctic but I want to look briefly at what follows this outbreak through next week. Does it hit and hold or does it kick out only to be replaced by mild.

ALL indexes look perfect for this cold that’s coming.

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NAO is iffy but like we saw through last winter, you don’t need a negative NAO to drive fierce cold south but you need that +PNA and more so the strongly -AO.

Here’s the front running 7 days off the GFS…

Following 7 days continues to show the western ridge/eastern trough but I suspect the cold remains but eases some following the initial discharge.

Even into day 8-16 it continues to show the same upper pattern.

ECMWF day 3-10 shows the same thing!

Check this out…

ECMWF projected SNOW ON THE GROUND by 192 hours!

Be sure to read yesterday’s write-up and watch today’s video for details on next week’s outbreak!

Moral is, the cold pattern sticks around through at least the 3rd week of the month and that’s likely given the depth of the indexes etc.

No posts tomorrow but full update on Sunday!!

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