Unsurprisingly, many across Ireland and the UK are waking up with the question, where’s summer gone? Unfortunately reality hits home hard following our first proper blow of the young autumn season.

Let’s not forget that we’re now into our SECOND autumn month, even though our first looked and felt more like a continuation of summer.

As expected, winds have brought down trees while heavy rain causes flooding across parts of Ireland and the UK and that heavy band of rain will make slow progress east through today, eventually clearing out into the North Sea tonight into Tuesday.

Top wind gusts. Via weatheronline.co.uk

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Winds are easing across Ireland but their picking up across central and eastern Britain as the low crosses Northern England. Winds will turn very strong on Scotland’s exposed northeast coast where we may see 70-80 mph gusts.

The ECMWF has the NE coast getting hammered but tonight into early tomorrow, there’s a band of 65 knots just off SW Norway which could mean very strong wind and wave action on eastern Orkney and Shetland.

This system eventually clears into the continent bringing similar conditions to the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway.

As this pattern has turned active and highly ‘Atlantic’ driven, we’ve another low set to push our way later Wednesday into Thursday. Expect more wind and rain. Once that clears slowly to the NE, models suggest a colder feed of air straight from the north through the upcoming weekend into next week before the next system sweeps in by Tuesday.

Next system, 72 hrs

Clears giving way to a colder northerly flow.

Next system arrives early to mid next week

Healthy rain amounts over the next 10 days for west facing upslopes of the UK.

While the OVERALL pattern is wetter and more Atlantic, the NAO/AO almost ALWAYS spike back positive again for a time even within negative dominated autumn’s and modelling does seem to be hinting at positive towards the end of October. This is likely and likely to be short lived before a secondary spell of potentially even wetter weather hits late autumn (Nov).

See today’s video for discussion. More on the longer range tomorrow!

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