Archive for August, 2014
There are interesting changes going on in the upper atmosphere with blocking becoming more and more of a feature over the North Atlantic. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] For the first time in a fair few months, the NAO is tanking. May this be a reaction to the shift from west to east in the QBO and this being a […]
By driving an autumnal Great Lakes low within an overall warm air mass and you’ve got the recipe for some wild weather. As most of us know, warm and cold do not mix but add TROPICAL moisture into the mix and you’ve got trouble. The perfect ingredients came together for not 1, 2 but 3 MAJOR and historic […]
After a brief respite from the blustery showers and longer spells of rain yesterday, today has seen the return of wetter conditions. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] As we head into the weekend, the GFS has another deep low close to the UK (just off NE Scotland) which looks set to bring another dose of coastal/high ground gales. Windy elsewhere. The more […]
The title says it all. It ain’t happening! [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] Current SST’s CFSv2 projections. On par with the modoki Nino or central Pacific based Nino which supports in itself a colder N America and Europe for the winter ahead. Jamstec sees it! [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]
With the exceptions of the West and perhaps surprisingly, East Coast, it’s been a cool, wet but comfortable, low energy summer with a distinct lack of 90 degree heat. The East Coast itself has been average to slightly above average but that’s largely down to warm water keeping the air more humid thus keeping nights warmer. Unsurprisingly, July was […]
Going to take a look at the ECMWF perspective on the next 7-10 days as I’ve focused a lot recently on the GFS. Bertha certainly left her mark and is slowly winding down over the North Sea but unfortunately, her cool, showery farewell looks to linger into Thursday and Friday before a low near Iceland […]
The unusual blocking pattern continues to bring extremes across the US. This time it’s in the form of rainfall with weekend flooding across parts of the Carolinas. Thanks to the passing of an unusually strong summer low through the Great Lakes, extreme rain and flash flooding struck the Detroit, MI area yesterday. How significant? An all-time record rainfall for August and […]
After producing damaging winds, shutting down festivals and events as well as causing significant flooding from Cardiff to Scotland North Coast, former tropical cyclone Bertha is not done with Europe yet. [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)] The system will continue to spin as a deep low over the North Sea, eventually weakening and filling later this week into […]
The rains continue pouring on the East while they shall ease in the West. Flooding hit the Carolinas this weekend. Focus shifts north and south this upcoming 7 days as seen by the QPF below. While some models show a warm end to August, the CFSv2 has turn chilly. CFSv2 temps for August Still experiencing issues with […]
Well the GFS has hands down beaten the ECMWF on Bertha’s track as well as intensity, deepening from 1001mb off SW Britain to now nearer 978mb off Aberdeen. As Bertha tracked NNE the system continued to deepen as seen by the GFS with wind speeds and rainfall increasing. The combination of Highland topography and very warm water (compared to normal) over […]
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