California is enduring it’s worst drought in a century and of course the blame is quickly reverted to climate change. However, when you look at the big picture. A lot of the blame is not down to a warming planet but in fact a cooling Pacific. Since the PDO turned cold, high pressure has become stronger over California and the West with El Nino’s becoming fewer and weaker while La Nina’s become more frequent and stronger.

 

There is reason to the drought.

SEE VIDEO!

Since 2009, take a look at the water temps off California and over the east Pacific (north of the equator) ever December since. Much colder than normal!

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2010

2011

2012

2013

I know water’s are coldest during winter but remember that California get’s some 90% of it’s rainfall during the winter months and this is the crucial time of year to replenish rivers, lakes and reservoirs ahead of the dry season.

The above SST charts are ANOMALIES not actual surface temps and notice how much below normal waters are off western North America all thanks to the cold PDO and this leads to DRIER than normal conditions. So, it’s ocean water temps, not a so called ‘warming world’ that’s driving the CA drought.

In the last 12 months, we’ve seen strong warming and even a brief return to a warm PDO. What is this doing? Not just bringing on an El Nino (albeit weak) but it’s shifting the summer rains WESTWARD over the continent.

Check out both CFSv2 & Jamstec SST projections off CA and W N America for December 2014

As a result of the warmer waters and El Nino, pressures are lower and thus wetter than normal conditions are expected during the upcoming winter!

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